By @fightnomics International Fight Week for the UFC kicks off with a bang. And despite the derailment of the Aldo-McGregor contest, fans are still getting a stacked card at UFC 189, the first of four cards in an eight day period. With so much talent heading to the MGM Grand Garden Arena, there are plenty of statistical studs to point out. But there are also a few paired in close matchups, or specifically underdogs, that make the matchups more intriguing. So here are a few impressive stats paired with not so impressive counterparts, and these mismatches could reveal potential clues to how these fights will play out. Stud: Conor McGregor’s Long-Range Attack With a wingspan of 74 inches, Conor McGregor has the second longest reach in the UFC Featherweight division, and the longest of any ranked Featherweight. But perhaps more importantly, he knows how to employ his range to his advantage. He uses a very wide stance, and throws a lot of kicks, maximizing his range around the cage. And McGregor’s power strikes land with abnormally high accuracy. If any fighter chooses to strike at a distance against McGregor, they are asking for trouble. Dud: Chad Mendes’s Reach At 66 inches, the reach of Chad Mendes is shorter than nearly the entire Featherweight division. While Mendes is certainly not a long-range striker, quite the opposite, the huge reach differential still makes his matchup with McGregor that much more complicated. Among historical UFC Featherweight fights, fighters with a reach advantage of seven inches or more went 5-2. Mendes must find a way to nullify the range differential, and that definitely means wrestling. Stud: Brad Pickett’s Wrestling Most think of Brad Pickett as a pugilist, but this is the guy who defeated Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson back in the WEC, and landed 10 of 11 takedowns in the process. Pickett has effectively used wrestling in plenty of matchups, and given his young opponent who prefers to strike, Pickett could use that same approach here. Dud: Thomas Almeida’s Ground Control Thomas Almeida is only two fights into his UFC career, but he has yet to attempt a takedown. And he probably won’t in his matchup with Pickett. Chances are good the young gun believes that trading leather with Pickett will likely lead to a KO win, and the market seems to agree given that Almeida is nearly a 10-to-1 favorite over Pickett. However, if we see a smart and tactical Pickett leverage his wrestling early and often, he has a chance for a monster upset. Stud: Jeremy Stephens’ Power Striking Another underdog with a potential path to victory is Jeremy Stephens, who has scored eight career knockdowns in his UFC career, including a KO victory over current Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. Stephens may not work at a high pace, or land with very high precision, but when he does land a punch, people fall down. Dud: Dennis Bermudez’s Chin Dennis Bermudez is favored in this matchup mostly thanks to his solid wrestling base that also helps set up his hands. He likes to press forward, throwing strikes in volume combined with relentless takedown attempts. Among the fighters at UFC 189, Bermudez is second only to Chad Mendes in terms of using his wrestling effectively during fights. But the problem is that Bermudez has also been dropped four times, tied with Brad Pickett for the most of anyone on the card. Should he press forward too often, Jeremy Stephens has the tools to make him pay for it. It’s still a longshot, but the ingredients are there. Stud: Rory MacDonald’s Technical Striking Rory MacDonald throws a jab-heavy barrage of strikes at opponents, and does so with excellent accuracy. Being a rangy and technical fighter, MacDonald’s discipline leads to him pick apart opponents and control the cage, while avoiding damage of his own. His recent knockout of feared striker Tarec Saffiedine was perhaps his best showing to date. Dud: Robbie Lawler’s Technical Defense While Lawler hasn’t controlled the cage as effectively as MacDonald, it’s partially because he’s such a dangerous striker that he doesn’t have to. He’s a power striker, using fewer jabs than average but packing more power than most Welterweights which has led to tallying more knockdowns than anyone on the card. He even owns the only knockdown ever scored against Rory MacDonald. The trick to winning this rematch is for Lawler to make the most of those power strikes, but not spend too much time eating jabs, as he has occasionally done. Stud: Brandon Thatch’s Standup Pressure While Brandon Thatch burst onto the UFC roster with back-to-back TKOs, he met a formidable foe in Benson Henderson who found a way to slow Thatch down with wrestling and eventually submit him. Still, Thatch is a beast of a Welterweight with striking that is a threat to any opponent. While his overall striking pace dropped just below average after the Henderson fight, he’s definitely going to be the one controlling the standup action against Gunnar Nelson. Both men have a karate background, and yet their striking approach will look glaringly different on fight night. Dud: Gunnar Nelson’s Standup Pace Gunnar Nelson has the lowest standup striking pace of any active UFC fighter. Period. He doesn’t just lag the pace of his opponents, he’s outright hesitant. That will create a big mismatch against Thatch as long as the fight is on the feet. On the mat, however, Nelson will have the upper hand. So that may be Nelson’s strategy here; let Thatch come forward and get aggressive, then wait for the opening for a takedown. Nelson’s best path to victory is via submission. These categorical mismatches could be a hint into how these fights will play out, highlighting how certain favorites will likely get their hand raised, but also hinting at a path to victory for some of the underdogs on the card. Either way, UFC 189 presents some contrasting styles that will make a stacked card even more exciting. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.
