One of the prelims at UFC 189 is a three-round welterweight bout between Alex Garcia and Mike Swick. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Garcia is a -400 favorite (bet $400 to win $100) while Swick is a +325 underdog (bet $100 to win $325). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Garcia at -260 and Swick at +180, and action has come in on the favorite Garcia. I agree with the money coming in on Garcia as I expect him to win this fight. Here’s why. Garcia (12-2) is a very solid fighter in the UFC welterweight division. The 27-year-old Dominican-Canadian is 2-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Sean Spencer and a knockout win over Ben Wall, with a decision loss to Neil Magny. Training at Tristar Gym in Montreal, Garcia has trained for years with top 170lbers like Georges St-Pierre and Rory MacDonald. He is an extremely explosive athlete and he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. On the feet he has knockout power, and on the ground he can submit you. He also has decent wrestling overall, making for a very complete fighter. His flaws are his cardio and chin, which aren’t the greatest, and also his takedown defence. He is coming off of a major injury layoff when he takes on Swick this weekend, but this really appears to be a fight where the UFC is looking to give him a lay-up in his return to the cage, and thus you see him enter the fight as a huge favorite. Swick (15-5) was a cast member on TUF 1 and is returning to the UFC after a nearly-three year injury layoff. The 36-year-old American is overall 10-4 in the UFC with wins over current UFC fighters Joe Riggs, Ben Saunders and Josh Burkman. He is nicknamed “Quick” because many of his wins have come inside the first round. However, while he had a lot of success back in the TUF 1 days, he has only won one fight in the last six years. I was very surprised that he decided to return after a long layoff and after his last fight where he was brutally knocked out by Matt Brown. At this point of his career, Swick’s chin is very suspect, and that’s scary going up against a power puncher like Garcia. Swick is definitely a dangerous guy himself and still possesses knockout power, but at the same time I feel like the sport has passed him by. He’s a great coach nowadays over at AKA Thailand, but I don’t feel like he’s a UFC-caliber fighter anymore, and I was very surprised to hear he was returning, especially against a guy like Garcia in what appears to be a giant mismatch on paper. I was very surprised when I heard Swick was returning to fighting after his three-year layoff and against a guy with knockout power in Garcia, no less. Garcia is coming off of a major knee injury but I believe he’ll be healthy for his one, and if he’s healthy he should take care of Swick no problem. Swick is getting long in the tooth and his chin can no longer handle power shots from an explosive fighter like Garcia. I really think the Tristar gym product gets to Swick’s chin in this one and knocks him out. The price is 4-to-1 and it’s high for a guy coming off of injury, but at the same time I’m very confident Garcia gets the job done here so don’t hesitate to parlay him.
