By @fightnomics Despite the loss of Jose Aldo in the main event, UFC 189 still has more than a few crisp strikers throwing down. There’s also some potential for extreme stylistic mismatches, culminating in the one in the main event between striker Conor McGregor and wrestler Chad Mendes. But all fights start standing, and how successful fighters are at landing the most critical strike in MMA, the power head strike, is usually a good measure of their overall striking ability. We’ll also look at striking pace later, but let’s start with precision. Here’s how their power head strike accuracy stacks up in one graph, and some takeaways for the UFC 189 matchups.
For more on these and other MMA performance metrics, get the book “Fightnomics.” Best in Class Sniper Capping off the UFC 189 card fans will be the most hyped fighter in the UFC finally getting put to his biggest test. Fans of Conor McGregor have pointed out that he has faced solid competition already, yet out-struck opponents handily. Meanwhile, critics point to the fact that none of McGregor’s opponents have been decorated wrestlers, as his opponent Chad Mendes is. And yet there’s no denying the striking skills of the Irishman, who comes into UFC 189 as the most accurate power striker on the card. What’s more impressive about his power striking, is that he maintains this accuracy while working at a busy pace and generally outstriking his opponents in volume. And yet none of that will matter if he’s on his back. So the stylistic mismatch that everyone is expecting is supported on paper – McGregor has the edge in striking precision – the bigger question is whether that will matter. Other Sharp Shooters Dominican Alex Garcia has displayed very sharp hands in his three UFC appearances so far. And he’ll need them to remain sharp against the notoriously explosive Mike Swick. But while Garcia is accurate, he’s also been easily hit, so he’ll also need to tighten up against his veteran striker opponent. Gunnar Nelson may be the third most accurate striker on the card, but he’s far and away the least active. Yet in his matchup with Brandon Thatch, the stylistic mismatch means Nelson will be looking to get the fight to the ground early and often so he can use his much more honed skills in jiu jitsu. Neil Seery may be almost 12 years older than his opponent Louis Smolka, but his hands will likely be more accurate in their exchanges. The odds are super tight for this Flyweight matchup, probably because Smolka gets the edge on the ground. Matt Brown has some of the nastiest elbows in the business, but even at a distance he tends to land his power strikes with above average accuracy, despite having faced top talent in the division. Ever the aggressor, the Brown-Means matchup should be fun to watch. That’s because Means is no slouch either. In fact, he also lands power strikes with good accuracy, but does so at a higher rate of striking volume while maintaining tighter defense. More reason this striking matchup will be intriguing and could turn into a barnburner. Rory MacDonald may utilize his jab more often than not, but his power strikes still have some pop and land at a good success rate. Interestingly, his jab is even more accurate (36%), and his lead hand recently dropped the formidable striker Tarec Saffiedine with a nasty hook, proving that there’s power behind the precision. But when it comes to power, no one doubts that Robbie Lawler is the harder hitter, and he’s actually tied with MacDonald in terms of precision. Where he sometimes falls short is in volume, because Lawler is often trying to fend off takedowns from opponents. That will add an interesting element to this title-fight matchup, but as far as going toe-to-toe, we’ll see very skilled strikers from both corners of the cage. The last of the strikers who excel above average should come as no surprise. Brandon Thatch has a long history of first round finishes until finally succumbing on the mat against Benson Henderson. Thatch will clearly be the fiercer striker against the more reserved Icelander, Gunnar Nelson. Middle of the Pack Louis Smolka comes in right about average, and below his opponent Neil Seery in terms of power striking accuracy. But what he may lack in precision, he makes up for in volume as the most active striker on the card, and also much more likely to attempt takedowns than his opponent. So this could be a matchup between Smolka’s pressure, and Seery’s counters and defense. Mike Swick made his way as high as a Welterweight title eliminator fight all while battling a health condition that prevented him from training and competing at full potential. But his history of first-round knockouts makes Mike “Quick” Swick dangerous in any striking exchange. While his opponent has an edge in accuracy on paper, it’s the experience and quality of opponents that evens out the striking matchup. Swick returns after nearly 1,000 days away from the cage, so there are bigger questions surrounding his condition here that make predictions much less reliable. Missing the Target Jeremy Stephens may come in just under the benchmark, but he more than makes up for it with power. Lil’ Heathen has scored eight knockdowns during his UFC career, and has a knockdown rate that is twice his division’s average. John Howard and Cathal Pendred are en route to a grinder. Neither man is exceptional with his hands, thought Howard has demonstrated more power while Pendred has worked at a higher pace. Both men also clinch a lot, so we probably won’t see a Fight of the Night here. Dennis Bermudez is facing a power striker in Jeremy Stephens, but Bermudez is no slouch in terms of power either with a high knockdown rate of his own. Bermudez does rank last here in terms of power strike accuracy, though it’s worth noting that he’s one of the more aggressively paced strikers on the card. He’ll no doubt be coming forward with strikes and/or takedowns, while Stephens will be looking to counter. Once on the mat, it’s all Bermudez. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.