brad-pickettUFC 189 Date: July 11, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed back to the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, July 11th for UFC 189. The stacked card will feature 11 bouts in entirety, including two title fights. Main card action is set to get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View, with a four fight preliminary card preceding it at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1 and a pair of scraps beforehand on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested on making this parlay or any wagers on this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My Fights to AVOID betting for UFC 189 are: Bantamweight bout: Brad Pickett (+675) vs Thomas de Almeida (-1050) Gabe’s Thoughts: I favor de Almeida to cruise here and think he should be a massive favorite in this contest, however I don’t quite agree with his current asking price of -1050. He initially opened at -440, at which point I liked him for a parlay, but after the public poured in on him and drove his price up, I no longer see value to include him in a parlay. I think he should be a -600 favorite, so at these odds, it’s a “dog or pass” situation, and I can’t make a move on the dog here. I would not be surprised if “One-Punch” lives up to his moniker and catches the Brazilian, but the odds of that happening are very slim and I think the real question is whether de Almeida wins this inside the distance or on the judges’ scorecards. Regardless of how he gets it done, it won’t be benefiting my wallet, as the price has gotten too high for my interest. Gabe’s Call: Almeida by T/KO (strikes, 2:38 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Welterweight bout: Alex Garcia (-400) vs Mike Swick (+325) Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with Garcia being the favorite in this 170-pound contest, however I don’t agree with him being a 4-to-1 favorite over Swick, who appears to be in the best shape he has been in years. Training out of AKA Thailand, he is ready to make a return in impressive fashion, and I am expecting a much better Mike Swick than we saw against DaMarques Johnson and Matt Brown. -400 is not a price I want to pay against him. I think both of these welterweights are going to be looking for the finish in this match-up, and eventually, I think one of them will find it. This is another “dog or pass” situation in my eyes, and it ultimately has to be a pass. Gabe’s Call: Garcia by T/KO (punches, 3:03 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID