UFC Fight Night 70 June 27th, 2015 Middleweight Matchup: Lyoto Machida vs Yoel Romero By @fightnomics Lyoto Machida has been fighting in main and co-main events since 2011 with title appearances in two divisions, so he’s no stranger to the big stage. Across the cage Yoel Romero, despite his age of 38 years, is a relative newcomer to the UFC, and certainly the bright lights of a fight card with his name on it. On Saturday in Hollywood (Florida), Machida and Romero will enter the Octagon with some very similar statistics and attributes, but very different career trajectories. Machida, a striker and MMA legend will face off with Romero, an Olympic wrestler with barely a third as many MMA fights. So the market believes this is a close matchup, with No. 3 ranked Machida slightly favored at -190 over the No. 6 ranked Romero, the underdog at +165. Early action was on the underdog, with more recent action on the favorite. It’s a close call at the books, and also on paper as we’ll soon see. So let’s see how the main event fighters will stack up on the statline heading into sweltering South Florida this Saturday night. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape shows that’s there are a lot of years between these two guys, over 75 in total. Both men are on the wrong side of the age range for MMA, though there isn’t much difference between them. Romero may be slightly older, but as a wrestler he hasn’t taken the head damage over the years that Machida likely has as a striker. Otherwise, the men are similarly sized, and also both use a Southpaw stance. The Southpaw-on-Southpaw dynamic could slow things down a little out of the gates, but the Tale of the Tape doesn’t give a big edge to either man on anthropometrics alone. Striking Matchup: The standup matchup is critical in any Machida fight. He’s a master technical striker, with 13 Knockdowns scored in the UFC, ranking him second all-time behind Anderson Silva. Machida isn’t just powerful, he’s very precise. And even though many of his strikes are kicks (less accurate than punches), he maintains a very high 34% power head strike accuracy. And while doing this, he’s very hard to hit. His head strike avoidance is very good at 81%, but if you differentiate jabs from power strikes, it’s even more impressive that he avoids 85% of all power head strikes thrown by his opponents. Average would be closer to 75%! So we’d immediately assume that a striker of Machida’s pedigree would have a huge advantage over Yoel Romero, who is transitioning his career from wrestling. And yet based on the statline, we see evidence that Romero is no slouch with his hands. In fact, Romero’s accuracy is even higher than Machida’s, and his power and defense aren’t bad either. But the big issue with this comparison is the quality of opposition. Machida, as mentioned above, has been a main card fixture and routinely competes against top quality opponents. Romero has jumped up in the rankings in just two years’ time going 5-0 in the UFC, but still has not faced a striker anywhere near Machida’s skill level. When these two go toe-to-toe, Machida is going to be the more technical striker, and is more likely to hit rather than be hit. And that means Romero’s chin is sure to get tested once they engage. There will likely be a slow start to the fight as both men used a conservative pace on the feet, but eventually they’ll start swinging, and either man could land a knockout blow. It’s more likely to be Machida that lands first, but it’s not guaranteed, and Romero’s heavy hands are sure to hurt Machida at this point in his career. That alone should keep the betting lines in check. Grappling Matchup: But what about Romero’s wrestling? Oddly, we haven’t seen a ton of it. He does attempt takedowns at a slightly higher than average pace, but his takedown success rate is below average. That’s probably because he’s shooting from a distance for many of them (as wrestlers do), which tends to have a low success rate. And shooting on Machida, specifically, isn’t a great idea. His takedown defense is an impressive 79% overall, but even higher at 85% against shooting takedowns. Romero, for his part, has also been content to stand and trade. So while taking Machida down will be hard, we might not even see an attempt early on. Machida himself rarely ever attempts a takedown, so the two big grappling questions are whether Romero will try, and if he’ll succeed. Here’s where the wrestling pedigree of Romero will lead to a lot of speculation. He certainly has the street cred (and the Olympic hardware) in wrestling, but it should not be a foregone conclusion that he’ll even want to take the fight down. The problem that he might immediately realize is that by forcing takedowns on an elusive fighter like Machida also opens him up to counters, and that’s something Machida is also very good at. Regardless, once on the mat Romero has been solid, but not fantastic, while Machida has been good at limiting damage and eventually getting back to his feet. Machida also has jiu jitsu to rely on, although we rarely get to see it. All in all, it’s unlikely that this fight spends a lot of time on the ground. If it does, it means Romero is finally using his wrestling effectively, and it could steal an early round. But expecting the wrestling to win the fight on the cards in a five-round fight here is still a longshot, as Romero does not have the cardio to take Machida to deep waters. Rather, the larger threat of wrestling here for bettors is simply delaying a finish and spoiling the Under. Reed’s Pick: Fight Does Not Go the Distance (Machida by TKO, the Under) Click for latest MMA odds Reed’s Recommended Play: The current for price for Machida is getting close to out of range for value. You don’t want to lay two-to-one juice for a guy who could get knocked out by a single punch by a guy who has shown an uncanny ability to land them despite low expectations. Yet overall, it’s hard not to like Machida’s experience and weapons against Romero who has engaged in some slugfests. Romero’s fortuitous streak may come to end. Machida as a straight play is a little risky, because if he gets it done, it’s like by a finish. And he could get knocked out along the way, as questions linger regarding his short turnaround from a brutal loss to Luke Rockhold. The Under of 2.5 rounds is a better play at basically even money. That leaves time for the two to test range before the leather starts flying. The safest bet is using “Fight Does Not Go the Distance” at -240 in parlays, as even if there’s a lot of clinch stalling, both men still have KO power and one of them will get to use it once their hands start dropping later in the fight. A prop on Machida by TKO at +190 is a nice plus money play, as he’ll have better stamina, and if Romero gets to aggressive Machida has exactly the counter-punch style to do serious damage. Machida also has nasty head kicks if indeed fatigue takes its toll. But if the lines run too far in Machida’s favor, look for a big underdog prop on Romero by TKO, as that’s the best way he can win. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.