One of the main card bouts at UFC FIght Night 70 is a three-round featherweight bout between Hacran Dias and Levan Makashvili. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Dias is a -185 favorite (bet $185 to win $100) while Makashvili is a +160 underdog (bet $100 to win $160). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Dias at -270 and Makashvili at +190, and so far bettors are on the dog Makashvili. This should be a good fight but I lean towards the dog Makashvili to get the win. Here’s why. Dias (22-3-1) is one of the most underrated featherweights in the UFC. The 31-year-old Brazilian is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over Darren Elkins and Iuri Alcantara and losses to Ricardo Lamas and Nik Lentz. Dias is primarily a grinder who will look to pressure you up against the fence. He is very strong for the weight class and in most fights he is able to stuff his opponents against the cage and control them. He has very takedown defence and in generally is hard to get to the mat. On the feet he is improving his striking and has shown some much improved boxing in recent fights. However, he is still a grappler primarily. When he has fought in the UFC he has been competitive in all of his fights, however he always leaves them in the judges’ hands, which leads to close-cut decisions going his opponents’ way, like when he fought tooth-and-nail with Lamas and lost a controversial decision. He is definitely a good fighter and gets good training in everyday alongside Jose Aldo and Renan Barao at Nova Uniao, but unlike his teammates, he seems more like he’ll be a perennial top-15 to top-20 guy rather than a champion. Makashvili (7-1) recently made his UFC debut, earning a split decision win over Mark Eddiva. The 26-year-old Georgian comes from a grappling background and has shown strong wrestling in his fights. He is able to get the fight to the floor in a variety of ways and is very strong in the clinch, especially up against the fence. He is not very active when he has top control when it comes to ground and pound and submissions, but he does enough with his control to win rounds; he has won the majority of his fights by decision.. As for his striking, he has some decent standup, throwing some nice punches with power and some kicks as well, but his striking is just to set up his takedowns. Makashvili was impressive in his UFC in a fight he took on short notice. This time, with a full camp, look for even more improvements from him when he takes on the toughest test of his career in Dias. This should be a competitive fight where both men have their moments. I think the majority of the fight takes place in the clinch along the fence where I think both guys will have success controlling their opponents, leading to a very close decision on the judges’ scorecards. I believe Makashvili can be a bit more effective with his offence in the clinch so I do slightly favor him to get the nod if this fight indeed does hit the cards. Having said that, I could see Dias grinding this one out, so even though I am picking Makashvili as a dog I prefer to go smaller on the Georgian here; this is mostly a value play, as I believe the line should be more competitive for this one. Also, take a look at the OVER 2.5 rounds total here. I think that cashes too, and could be something to use in a parlay this weekend.
