One of the televised prelims at UFC 188 is a three-round flyweight bout between Henry Cejudo and Chico Camus. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Cejudo is a -1000 favorite (bet $1000 to win $100) while Camus is a +650 underdog (bet $100 to win $650). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Cejudo at -475 and Camus at +325, and huge action has since come in on the favorite Cejudo. I agree with the line movement here as I fully expect Cejudo to win this fight. Here’s why. Cejudo (8-0) is one of the best pound-for-pound wrestlers in the UFC. The 28-year-old American is 2-0 in the UFC with decision victories over Chris Cariaso and Dustin Kimura and overall is undefeated in his MMA career since beginning it two years ago. He is a dominant wrestler and no one save maybe the elite flyweights can stop his shot. On the ground he can control his opponents from the top with ease and also work in some ground and pound to score points. He is also working on his hands, as his boxing looked impressive against Kimura. He is also going to have the crowd behind him in this fight. He’s still young and improving and with a big win over Camus, he could get a title shot in a shallow UFC flyweight division. Camus (14-5, 1 NC) made his flyweight debut in his last fight and picked up a huge win over Brad Pickett. The 30-year-old American is 3-2, 1 NC in the UFC with wins over Pickett, Dustin Pague and Kyung Ho Kang, with losses to Chris Holdsworth and Kimura with a No Contest to Yaotzin Meza. When he fought at bantamweight he was mostly using his wrestling and top game to control opponents and win decisions, but in his fight against Pickett he showed an evolution in his striking as he displayed some very technical, accurate boxing on the feet. He is a solid flyweight but the UFC is feeding him to the wolves here in Cejudo, and unless Camus has become elite at defending takedowns since the Pickett fight, it’s hard to imagine him having any success here as he’s likely to be put on his back and grounded out for 15 minutes. I like Camus, but I think this is just a terrible matchup for him. I think Cejudo beats just about anybody in the flyweight division except for maybe the top three or four guys, and that’s because his wrestling is just incredibly dominant. Camus generally has good takedown defence but do I think he can stop Cejudo’s shots? No, I don’t. I think Camus probably gets taken down in every round here, with Cejudo winning a clear-cut 30-27 decision on the judges’ cards. That being said, -1000 is a high price to pay for anyone in MMA. It’s probably better to go with the OVER 2.5 rounds prop here at -220 or Cejudo by decision at -160, both props of which I believe have value as I really do see Cejudo winning this fight on the cards.
