One of the Fight Pass prelims at UFC 188 is a three-round welterweight bout between Albert Tumenov and Andrew Todhunter. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Tumenov is a -420 favorite (bet $420 to win $100) while Todhunter is a +335 underdog (bet $100 to win $335). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Tumenov at -400 and Todhunter at +280, and some action has come in on the favorite Tumenov so far. I agree with the odds as I expect Tumenov to finish Todhunter. Here’s why. Tumenov (15-2) is on of the top up-and-coming welterweight fighters in the UFC. The 23-year-old Russian is 3-1 in the UFC with wins over Anthony Lapsley, Nico Musoke and Matt Dwyer with a split decision defeat to Ildemar Alcantara. He is an extremely high-level striker with brutal knockout power. He has 10 wins by knockout in his career, and possesses deadly KO power in his hands and shins. He is not known for his ground game, but he has good takedown defence and if he can keep his fights standing he will be difficult to defeat. The one flaw he has shown in his UFC career now is his cardio, which cost him against Alcantara, but as of late he has improved that aspect of his game. He was set to fight Hector Urbina, but after Urbina pulled out with an injury he will now take on Toddhunter in what most, including myself, are viewing as a mismatch. Todhunter (7-0) is taking this fight on one week’s notice. He will be making his UFC debut here, and it’s a tough spot as he’s up against a killer in Tumenov. A veteran of Legacy FC, Todhunter is undefeated in his pro career at 7-0 and was also 7-0 as an amateur. All seven of his pro wins are by submission, proving he is a grappler first and foremost. As far as his striking goes, he is improving it but he is not a threat on the feet, especially against a skilled striker like Tumenov. Therefore, he will be looking to take Tumenov down and tap him out on the ground, but it won’t be easy to get Tumenov down, and when this fight stays standing, it’s hard to envision Todhunter having any sort of success. He will have his chin tested in this one, but I doubt he passes that test, and the betting public agrees as he is a big underdog in this fight. I feel bad for Todhunter. Coming into his UFC debut on one week’s notice is tough enough, and now he has to fight one of the division’s brightest young stars in Tumenov. This is just a bad situation for Todhunter, and I do not see it ending well for him. Tumenov is an incredible striker and I really do think he gets the first-round knockout in this one. I just don’t think Todhunter has anything for him on the feet and I fully expect the Russian to look amazing yet again. The odds are high on Tumenov, but they are quite justified in my opinion, and I recommend playing him this weekend in your parlay.
