tuf-16-finaleUFC Fight Night 68 Date: June 6, 2015 Arena: Smoothie King Center City: New Orleans, Louisiana The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to New Orleans, LA this Saturday night (June 6th, 2015) with UFC Fight Night 68: Henderson vs Boetsch. The 12-fight card will feature a six fight card to be live on FOX Sports 1 at 10pm ET, and preliminary action will precede it on the same channel at 8pm ET, with a pair of bouts streaming live prior to that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these props, or any other plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Here are my prop plays for UFC Fight Night 68 in New Orleans: Dan Henderson (+175) vs Tim Boetsch (-190) Fight Goes to Decision (+310) 1u to win 3.1u Boetsch by Decision (+430) 1u to win 4.3u Fight Starts Round Two (-193) 1.92u to win 1u Fight Starts Round Three (+102) 1u to win 1.02u Contrary to popular opinion, I think this five round main event middleweight match-up has a decent chance of going all 25-minutes for a judges’ decision. I think Boetsch wins this fight, and I lean towards a decision victory slightly more than a finish, and at +430, I think there is plenty of value in the prop. I played it at +704, +600 and +500, but there is still plenty of value for a play at +430. Ben Rothwell (+165) vs Matt Mitrione (-175) Fight Goes to Decision (+240) 1u to win 2.4u Mitrione by Decision (+375) 1u to win 3.75u Again, contrary to popular opinion, this is another fight I think has a much better chance of reaching the judges’ scorecards than the odds indicate. I was able to get Mitrione by Decision at +725, +600 and +450, but think there is still value at +375. I got the Fight Goes to Decision prop at +325, but think there’s still value at +240. I think the most likely outcome to this heavyweight contest is Mitrione using his superior technical striking to win a decision over three rounds of action. Brian Ortega (-155) vs Thiago Tavares (-165) Ortega by T/KO (+773) .5u to win 3.86u Ortega by Submission (+405) .5u to win 2.02u Ortega +3.5 (-165) 3.3u to win 2u In short, I think Ortega has a decent chance of winning this fight inside the distance, by either T/KO or submission. Should he end up suffering the first official loss of his professional mixed martial arts career, I think it will be on the judges’ scorecards and he will have done enough to win at least one round on the judges’ scorecards. Anthony Birchak (+160) vs Joe Soto (-170) Birchak +3.5 (-150) 3u to win 2u To put it simply, I favor Birchak to get his hand raised in this bantamweight contest, but should he end up with his second consecutive Octagon defeat, I think it will likely come on the judges’ scorecards, and he will have done enough to have at least secured one round on the cards. Derrick Lewis (-105) vs Shawn Jordan (-105) Fight Goes to Decision (+460) 1u to win 4.6u Jordan by Decision (+639) 1u to win 6.39u This is another fight on this card I think has a decent chance of seeing the judges’ scorecards for a decision, and certainly much better than the odds indicate. This is a rematch of a fight which Jordan won by unanimous decision, and I think a similar outcome is the most likely outcome to this rematch. I took Jordan by Decision at +820, but think there’s still plenty of value at +639. Brian Ebersole (+120) vs Omari Akhmedov (-130) Ebersole by Decision (+241) 1u to win 2.41u Simply put, I think this is the most likely outcome to this welterweight bout. Chris Wade (-165) vs Christos Giagos (+155) Giagos +3.5 (-150) 3u to win 2u Wade and Giagos are both solid lightweights and I expect this to be a close, and likely entertaining fight. I lean with Giagos to get his hand raised, but should he come away with a loss, I think he will have done enough to win at least one out of three rounds on the judges’ scorecards. If Wade gets his hand raised, I think it will almost surely come via decision after three rounds of action. Should there be a finish in this fight, I think more often than not it will be Giagos getting the job done. Both of these 155-pounders are durable and not easy to put away, so I think this scrap will hit the judges’ scorecards more often than not, where again, I slightly lean with the underdog Giagos, but I see it being a close fight that could go either way when it’s left in the hands of the judges’ at Octagon-side. Joe Proctor (-200) vs Justin Edwards (+185) Edwards by Decision (+325) 1u to win 3.25u Edwards +3.5 (-130) 2.6u to win 2u I think this lightweight contest between two veteran of The Ultimate Fighter is much closer than the betting odds suggest. I see this as being a coin-flip fight, and I am going with the underdog Edwards. I think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, where I lean towards Edwards edging out a decision more often than not. However, should he end up on the losing end, I think he will have done enough to secured one round in defeat.