One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 68 is a three-round featherweight bout between Dustin Poirier and Yancy Medeiros. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Poirier is a -185 favorite (bet $185 to win $100) while Medeiros is a +160 underdog (bet $100 to win $160). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Poirier at -165 and Medeiros at +125, and action so far has come in on Poirier. This should be a fun, exciting fight between two underrated lightweights, but I do lean towards Poirier to get the win. Here’s why. Poirier (17-4) is 9-3 overall in the UFC with a 1-0 record at 155lbs, having brutally knocked out Carlos Diego Ferreira in his UFC lightweight debut. The 26-year-old American was one of the top contenders at featherweight, but after getting knocked out by Conor McGregor he decided to move up a weight class and so far the results have been splendid. Poirier is a dynamic, fun fighter who has great standup and a great ground game. He has sneaky-good submissions on the ground and on the feet he has underrated striking and knockout power. In fact, his last three wins have come by knockout, which shows the evolution in his striking training at American Top Team. He was one of the best featherweights in the UFC and he has the chance to jump into the top 15 at lightweight with an impressive win over Medeiros this weekend. It’s a tough fight, but it’s one he should win, which is why you see the betting line the way it is. Medeiros (11-2, 1 NC) is one of the up-and-coming lightweights in the UFC. The 27-year-old American is 2-2, 1 NC in the UFC with wins over Joe Proctor and Damon Jackson, with losses to Rustam Khabilov and Jim Miller with a No Contest to Yves Edwards. Medeiros is an exciting, dynamic fighter who can finish you on the ground and on the feet. On the ground he has a very tricky submission game and on the feet he has fast hands that have a lot of power in them. After struggling to find the right weight class for years, he’s finally settled on lightweight and in the UFC he’s looked very solid overall competing at 155lbs, although a submission loss to Miller is concerning considering the decline of Miller in recent years. Medeiros, who trains with the Diaz brothers, hasn’t beaten an elite fighter yet, but in his wins over lesser competition he’s looked great. But if he wants to take that next step in his career he needs to beat a guy like Poirier, but that won’t be an easy feat, especially in Poirier’s hometown. I could really see either guy getting the win here, but I lean towards Poirier. I’ve just been really impressed with him the last few years and fighting at 155lbs now, I think he’s finally found the right weight class to fight at. After seeing what he did to Ferreira in his lightweight debut, I think there’s a good chance he finishes Medeiros in this fight. I’m very high on Medeiros, too, so this is a tough one for me to pick, but overall I just lean towards Poirier slightly in both the standup and in the ground game, as well as the wrestling, and the fact he is fighting at home doesn’t hurt, either. I wouldn’t lay this sort of juice on Poirier in this spot, but if money comes in on Medeiros and the line drops down, I’d considering making a play on the Louisianan.
