A week after UFC 187 brought one of the biggest cards of the year to Las Vegas, the Octagon will take a trip down to Brazil for a lower profile card that should be high on action. One of the most consistently entertaining fighters in MMA, Carlos Condit, makes his return from a nasty knee injury suffered against Tyron Woodley, to face former welterweight title challenger Thiago Alves in a five-round main event. Condit currently sits as a -250 favorite, with the comeback on Alves at +210. The co-main event should be just as fun to watch, as Charles Oliveira and Nik Lentz run back their June 2011 bout that ended in a no-contest. Oliveira looked to be on his way to winning that bout — which was contested in the lightweight division — but an illegal knee ruled it a no contest instead. Lentz hopes to turn the tables on the Brazilian this time at featherweight. A pair of dangerous strikers, KJ Noons and Alex Oliveira, will square off in a lightweight division which should produce some entertaining fisticuffs regardless of the result. Noons is coming off a no contest against Daron Cruickshank, while Oliveira surprised many by taking the first two rounds against top prospect Gilbert Burns before falling prey to an armbar in the third round. Not quite as guaranteed to be fireworks, Francimar Barroso and Ryan Jimmo will face each other in a light heavyweight bout which could end early, or drag out for 15 minutes as a clinch battle. The main card is rounded out by Norman Parke facing a second straight Brazilian veteran in Francisco Trinaldo, and Wendell Oliveira taking on UFC newcomer and late replacement Darren Till. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the UFC Fight Night 67 main card today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Carlos Condit -190 Over 3.5 -125 Thiago Alves +150 Under 3.5 -115 Charles Oliveira -210 Over 2.5 -140 Nik Lentz +160 Under 2.5 +100 KJ Noons -125 Over 2.5 -140 Alex Oliveira -115 Under 2.5 +100 Ryan Jimmo -245 Over 2.5 -155 Francimar Barroso +175 Under 2.5 +115 Norman Parke -170 Over 2.5 -175 Francisco Trinaldo +130 Under 2.5 +135 Wendell Oliveira -135 Over 2.5 +120 Darren Till -105 Under 2.5 -160 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Skill-wise, I really like Charles Oliveira in the bout against Nik Lentz. He was dominating Lentz in their first bout, and I think his skills and confidence have progressed more since then. The only worry about Oliveira is that he struggles to make 145, and if he can’t put Lentz away early, he may fade in this bout. I think he can replicate his previous performance (minus the illegal knee), and I’m hoping money comes in on Lentz and the over. I actually slightly favor Alex Oliveira to beat KJ Noons. He has a massive reach advantage here, and is more diverse in his striking. He should be able to keep Noons at the end of his strikes, and not allow KJ into punching range. I still expect the bout to be competitive, but keep in mind this fight is in Brazil, so you have to give Oliveira the edge in a close bout. I think the line here could improve however, so I’m going to wait until later in the week to play it. I really have no interest in Jimmo/Barroso from any angle. As a fight, I expect it to be lacklustre. For betting, it doesn’t intrigue me either. I think Jimmo wins by controlling the cage and, shockingly, doing more at range, but it’s Ryan Jimmo. If he decides to do the robot for three rounds instead of fighting, would you be shocked? Perhaps the one bet I’d look at here is the over, but Ryan Jimmo in the UFC hasn’t be the reliable sleep machine he was back in his MFC days, so I’m not sure there. I’m just passing and not looking back. Parke/Trinaldo looks a lot like Parke/Tibau to me. Parke has the cardio advantage, but I don’t think he has the actual skill advantages anywhere. Trinaldo can display even worse cardio than Tibau though, so the cardio advantage may be enough for Parke to pull out the victory here. I can’t play him at -170, although I think that line may actually climb. If Trinaldo gets over +150, I’ll be tempted, and if it somehow hits +200, I won’t be able to help but pull the trigger. I think a lot of people will see Oliveira/Till as an Englishman coming to Brazil on short notice to face a Brazilian, but Till lives and trains in Brazil. He’s also a fairly well rounded fighter who keeps up a decent pace, and against a fighter like Oliveira who is prone to spurts of inactivity and doesn’t have a great chin, that could see him pick up a win in his UFC debut. I won’t be betting it unless I can find some plus money (and get to watch both guys a bit more beforehand), but it’ll be in the back of my mind.
