One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 66 is a three-round lightweight bout between Yui Chul Nam and Phillipe Nover. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Nam is a -175 favorite (bet $175 to win $100) while Nover is a +155 underdog (bet $100 to win $155). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Nam at -190 and Nover at +150, and there hasn’t been much action on this fight as the lines have tightened. It’s a competitive fight on paper, but I have to favor Nam to win this fight and agree with him being the favorite. Here’s why. Nam (18-4-1) is 1-0 in the UFC with a ‘Fight of the Night’ decision win over Kazuki Tokudome. The 33-year-old native of South Korea is nicknamed “The Korean Bulldozer” and the nickname is very accurate. This is an extremely aggressive fighter who constantly moves forward throwing a high volume of strikes. He has a judge-friendly style and has won nine of the 12 fights he’s had that have gone to decision. He also has eight knockouts. He has won five fights in a row but is coming off of a 14-month layoff, which is always a concern. The knock against Nam is that because he is so aggressive, he tends to empty his gas tank early in fights and slows down later in bouts. He also has suspect takedown defence. But his striking and aggressiveness are both very good, and those things in conjunction will allow him to defeat many mid-tier lightweights, which is what his opponent Nover is. Nover (10-5-1) is making his return to the UFC after five years away from the organization. After leaving the UFC in 2010, the 31-year-old Filipino-American went 4-2 to earn another shot to fight in the Octagon, with his only losses in the last five years coming to Bellator’s Marcin Held and the inconsistent-yet-talented Tony Martin. Nover was a member of TUF 8 and entered the UFC with a lot of hype, but he went 0-3 in his UFC stint with losses to Rob Emerson, Kyle Bradley and Efrain Escudero and was released. To his credit, he has improved his game since being cut and is currently riding a three-fight win streak. He is primarily a ground fighter, with five of his 10 wins coming by submission. He will attempt to take you down and tap you out, but he can hang on the feet for the most part as well. He is overall a talented guy, but he just hasn’t been able to put it all together on the big stage. However, he will get a chance to get back into the lightweight mix against Nam. It’s a fight between a striker and a grappler, and Nover will be looking to take his opponent down and beat him on the mat. We’ll find out this weekend if he’s able to do that. I think what this fight boils down to is Nam’s aggressiveness and whether or not he can keep up that pace for three full rounds. I fully expect him to come out of the gates throwing fire, but it’s the second and third rounds that will determine whether or not he wins. If he can’t finish Nover in the first round and gasses out, Nover could take him down later in the fight and possibly submit him. But if Nam has improved his cardio and takedown defence since his last fight, he should win this fight because he’s just so aggressive and the judges love guys that walk forward. Again, you can’t totally write off Nover here, and you have to wonder why the UFC made this fight in the Philippines, but I’m going with Nam to pick up a decision here, although this isn’t a great spot for a bet because of his long layoff.
