One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 66 is a three-round lightweight bout between Lipeng Zhang and Kajan Johnson. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Zhang is a -135 favorite (bet $135 to win $100) while Johnson is a +115 underdog (bet $100 to win $115). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Johnson at -140 and Zhang at +100, and there has been little action so far on this fight. I actually lean towards the underdog Zhang to pick up the win in this fight. Here’s why. Johnson (19-11-1) is 0-1 in the UFC with a brutal knockout loss to Tae Hyun Bang. He has not fought since that fight, which was a year ago, and overall including his stint on TUF Nations he has been brutally knocked out in his last two fights. In his pro career the 31-year-old Canadian has been knocked out four times, and he’s been submitted three times as well, showing his defensive flaws. On the flipside, he’s an exciting offensive talent, and has 15 finishes to his name, including 11 by submission. Training at TriStar, he trains at a good camp and should be prepared for this fight. However, he seems to be fading quickly in his career and his chin seems to be gone at this point. He is facing off against a guy in Zhang who doesn’t have finishing power, but he does have good wrestling, so Johnson will need to be on point with his wrestling if he wants to pull off the upset win over in Asia. Zhang (9-8-1) is 2-1 in the UFC with decision wins over Brendan O’Reilly and Wang Sai and a decision loss to Chris Wade. The 25-year-old China native is improving fight by fight and won TUF China, showing he does have some talent. If you look at his record it’s not good, but keep in mind the improvements he has made, especially in the wrestling department. He has shown very good takedown ability and he’s also shown some nice clinch work. His striking is completely nonexistent, but again, it’s improving. As far as his weaknesses go, his workrate and cardio are concerns, as is his submission defence, as he’s been tapped out five times. So he definitely has some flaws. But he also good some stuff well, specifically grinding his opponents out for decision wins. Zhang doesn’t have huge upside, but he is a decent fighter and he should have a good shot of getting the upset nod over Johnson in his home territory of Asia. I don’t think Zhang is anything special, but he’s decent, and arguably the best Chinese fighter on the roster, if that means anything. I know the talent overall coming out of China hasn’t been great, but I think Zhang is a diamond in the rough. He’s not exciting to watch, but he knows how to win fights in MMA using his size and strength to push foes against the fence and put them on the mat, and I expect him to do this to Johnson. I feel like this is a good fade spot on Johnson, who hasn’t fought in a year and who has lost his last two fights (including TUF) by vicious knockout. I think Johnson was a good fighter at one point in time, but I think he’s nearing the end of his career, and I expect Zhang to beat him. I’m not sure if Zhang gets the finish, but I like him to use his wrestling and at least win a decision here. At plus money, Zhang looks like a nice value bet.
