One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 66 is a three-round welterweight bout between Neil Magny and Hyun Gyu Lim. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Magny is a -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) while Lim is a +105 underdog (bet $100 to win $105). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Lim at -150 and Magny at +110, and bettors are going with the dog Magny, flipping the line in the process. I disagree with the line movement as I favor Lim to win this fight. Here’s why. Magny (14-3) is 7-2 in the UFC with wins over Kiichi Kunimoto, Rodrigo de Lima, Gasan Umalatov, Jon Manley, William Macario, Tim Means and Alex Garcia with losses to Sergio Moraes and Seth Baczynski. The 27-year-old American appeared on TUF 16 and on the show he looked like he was going to get a typical TUF cast out as he was brutally knocked out by Mike Ricci on the show, but he’s really improved since then. He is currently riding a six-fight win streak in the UFC, and while his competition might not be the most impressive, he is getting better every time he fights. He has one of the longest reaches in the welterweight division and he’s finally figuring out how to use it properly. His cardio has improved immensely, and it’s difficult for anyone in the division to match his pace and output. While once criticized as a point fighter, Magny has won three of his last four fights by stoppage. He is a very good fighter and is getting better every time we see him, but he is being given a tough stylistic matchup here in Lim, who matches him in reach and beats him in power. It’s a tough assignment for Magny, but if he wins this fight expect him to get a big step up in competition for his next outing. Lim (13-4-1) is 3-1 in the UFC with three knockout wins over Takenori Sato, Pascal Krauss and Marcelo Guimaraes with a decision loss to Tarec Saffiedine. The 30-year-old South Korean is gigantic for 170lbs and is one of the few fighters in the division who can match Magny’s reach. A brutal knockout artist, Lim has won 12 of his 13 fights by stoppage and overall has won eight of his last nine fights — all by stoppage over that period. He showed in the five-round war he had with Saffiedine that he is extremely tough and durable, although his strike defence — particularly his leg kick defence — during the fight was obviously concerning. Still, he managed to go the full five rounds and event mount a late comeback, nearly winning by knockout in the last 10 seconds. That fight showed how much power he has, and how he’s dangerous at any point in a fight. He is taking on Magny in a fight where the winner will get a significant step up in competition, and it’s a fight that Lim can win if he can land something big, and considering Magny hasn’t shown the best chin the past and considering how much power Lim is packing, there’s a good chance we see an upset in this fight. Magny has looked excellent as of late, but I really think Lim has looked great in the UFC too. Outside of the Saffiedine fight, where he did has his moments, the guy has just been an absolute destroyer. Magny’s looked great too, for the most part, but he has struggled with a few of his opponents, and don’t forget he lost the fight to Baczynski just last year. The thing Baczynski has in common with Lim is they both have a long reach. I feel like Magny has gotten away fighting opponents with shorter reaches, and now that he’s fighting someone with a really long reach like Lim, I think he’ll have some issues. Magny could very well outpoint Lim here, but I don’t think that will be easy. I think Lim will be constantly walking forward throwing power shots, and eventually I think he will catch Magny and put him out. Considering how good he’s looked as of late I can understand why people are betting on Magny here, but I feel like at plus money Lim is worth a shot here. I feel like he can cause Magny a lot of problems on the feet in this fight, and I think he can finish him so at the odds I have to take a stab on the underdog to get the upset win.
