The main event of UFC Fight Night 65 is a five-round heavyweight bout between Stipe Miocic and Mark Hunt. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Miocic is a -240 favorite (bet $240 to win $100) while Hunt is a +200 underdog (bet $100 to win $200). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Miocic at -160 and Hunt at +120, and action has been all over the favorite Miocic. This is a heavyweight fight so it could go either way, but at the current price I do have to lean towards Hunt to get the upset win. Here’s why. Miocic (12-2) is one of the top heavyweight fighters in the UFC. The 32-year-old American is 6-2 in the UFC with wins over Fabio Maldonao, Roy Nelson, Gabriel Gonzaga, Phil de Fries, Joey Beltran and the late Shane Del Rosario, with losses to Junior dos Santos and Stefan Struve. Miocic is extremely well rounded. He is an athlete, having previously competed in baseball and wrestling before MMA, and you can see his athleticism in his fights. He moves extremely well around the Octagon, better than most heavyweights, and at only 240lbs he often has a speed advantage in his fights. He has a very crisp, accurate boxing attack and while he isn’t the heaviest hitter in the division. he absolutely can finish fights, having been the only man to knock out the hard-headed Maldonado. Aside from his striking he also has very good, underrated wrestling and when he gets fights to the mat he can unleash some vicious ground and pound. If there’s any knock on Miocic it’s his strike defence and his cardio, He slows down in all of his fights and it cost him in both of his losses. He also was extremely hittable in both of his losses, which cost him in the Struve fight when he was knocked out. Still, he showed against JDS he has a good chin, so while he does get hit too much he can take it from most guys in the division. However, not many hit as hard as Hunt does, so if Miocic is content to stand and bang for the fans’ enjoyment like he did in his last fight, he very well could be finished by Hunt in this fight. Hunt (10-9-1) is also one of the best heavyweights in the UFC. The 41-year-old New Zealander is 5-3-1 in the UFC with wins over Roy Nelson, Struve, Cheick Kongo, Ben Rothwell and Chris Tuchscherer with losses to dos Santos, Fabricio Werdum and Sean McCorkle and a draw against Antonio Silva. Hunt is a former K-1 world champion and he is one of the heaviest hitters in the UFC. He has extreme power in his hands and he’s shown it off multiple times in the UFC, knocking out fighters like Nelson and Struve in absolutely devastating fashion. While he was once a fish out of water on the ground, he has really worked hard to improve his grappling. Nowadays, he actually has very solid takedown defence and is able to keep most of his fights standing. In fact, he actually goes for takedowns now, which is something that would have been unheard of years ago when he was first getting into MMA. If you look at this MMA record Hunt has been tapped out six times indicating a weakness on the mat, but these days his weakness is actually on the feet, which is crazy to think about. It’s not that his striking has worsened — it’s actually better than ever — it’s just that his once-iron chin is now suspect, having been brutally KOed by both Werdum and JDS. So even though Miocic doesn’t have crazy power, if he starts to accumulate volume he very well could knock Hunt out. Having said that, Hunt has absolutely insane power, so anytime his fights are on the feet he has a higher puncher’s chance than usual, and if he can catch Miocic he can put him away, making for an extremely intriguing fight and one that has fireworks written all over it. I like Miocic and I understand why people are betting on him. After all, he’s nine years younger, he is faster, he has taken less damage, and overall he’s more the well rounded fighter. Having said that, I like Hunt in this fight. Considering it’s a heavyweight matchup, the chances of a one-punch knockout are higher and I really think Hunt has a good chance to get it done here. He hits extremely hard and if Miocic gets tagged as much as he did against JDS, Hunt will eventually find his chin and put him away within the five rounds. Everyone is expecting Miocic to stick and move for five rounds, but that’s a long time to be in the Octagon with Hunt, who has underrated cardio, and I think the “Super Samoan” can come through with another upset win. I’m not super confident in Hunt because it’s clear he’s on a decline and his chin is fading so going big on him would be unwise, but at +200 it’s hard not to like him here for a small play. This is a close fight that could go either way, so I see the value lying with the underdog with a puncher’s chance and believe he’s worth a bet this weekend considering the odds.
