One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 65 is a three-round featherweight bout between Hatsu Hioki and Dan Hooker. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Hioki is a -270 favorite (bet $270 to win $100) while Hooker is a +230 underdog (bet $100 to win $230). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Hioki at -280 and Hooker at +200, and so far there has been little action on this bout as the lines have tightened. I agree with Hioki being favored to win this fight, but feel like the current odds are too high. Here’s why. Hioki (27-8-2) is 3-4 in the UFC with wins over Ivan Menjivar, Bart Palaszewski and George Roop with losses to Charles Oliveira, Darren Elkins, Clay Guida and Ricardo Lamas. The 31-year-old native of Japan was once considered one of the top 145lbers on the planet, but in recent years his game has dipped off, including getting finished for the first time in his career in his last fight against Oliviera. Hioki still has great wrestling, but he’s been making too many mistakes in the grappling department in his last few fights and on the feet he hasn’t been effective outside of the first round of his fights. His cardio does not allow him to sustain a 15-minute pace anymore, and he’s lost many of his fights by losing the later rounds. Not only that, but he was also knocked down by Menjivar, although he quickly recovered. Still, that’s scary. There’s no doubt Hioki is a talented grappler and with 12 submission wins in his career he’s a dangerous fighter on the mat, but it seems pretty clear he’s on a decline at this point and this fight with Hooker, which would have been a lock for Hioki three or four years ago, is suddenly a pretty tough matchup for the veteran, and the odds seem to be too high in favor considering his recent performances. Hooker (11-5) is 1-1 in the UFC with a TKO win over Ian Entwistle and a decision loss to Maximo Blanco. The 30-year-old Australian is an aggressive striker who constantly walks forward and throws strikes. He throws a high volume of strikes and although his defence is lacking, he has a great chin that allows him to absorb strikes and throw them back in bunches. With 10 stoppages to his credit, it’s clear Hooker is a finisher. In his UFC debut against Entwistle he was put into a bad position by the heel-hook specialist, but he was able to get on top and land brutal elbows on the ground that forced a stop to the fight. Still, the fact he was put on the ground is an obvious concern fighting a submission wizard like Hioki, as is the fact Hooker has tapped out twice in his career. In general, though he’s a young and durable fighter who keeps improving every time we see him. If he’s able to keep this fight with Hioki on the feet he’ll have a solid chance to steal a decision, but it’s more likely he does get taken down and that’s why you see the odds so wide in this spot. Like most, I do favor Hioki to get his hand raised here because he is the better mixed martial artist, but I also have some concerns. To be quite frank, Hioki simply hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations placed upon him when he joined the UFC. He was supposed to be a title contender, but now he’s fighting Hooker to save his job with the company. He is the older fighter in this fight by a wide margin and I feel like if this fight stays on the feet Hooker will have a good chance to win on points just due to his sheer aggressiveness. However, it’s more likely Hioki is able to use his underrated wrestling and get Hooker to the mat and ground him out or submit him, which is why he’s the favorite. Still, there’s no way I’d touch Hioki at this price considering how poorly he has performed in the UFC. I’m picking Hioki to win because he is the better fighter, but if the line gets out of whack and reaches +300 (it absolutely could), then the Australian may be worth a small value play. For now, though, it’s a pass.
