One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 65 is a three-round welterweight bout between Vik Grujic and Brendan O’Reilly. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Grujic is a -120 favorite (bet $120 to win $100) while O’Reilly is a +100 underdog (bet $100 to win $100). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Grujic at -150 and O’Reilly at +110, and some action has come in on the dog O’Reilly so far. I disagree with the action on O’Reilly as I’m picking Grujic to win this fight. Here’s why. Grujic (6-4) is 1-2 in the UFC with a TKO win over Chris Indich and a TKO loss to Chris Clements and a decision loss to Nordine Taleb. On TUF Nations he went 1-1 with a TKO win over Luke Harris and a submission loss to Sheldon Westcott. The 38-year-old Australian is a grinder who will push you up against the cage and attempt to take you down and wear you out with his underrated wrestling. He also has a decent submission game if he can get it to the ground. However, he has not had much success in the sport despite having a style that should on paper be effective, as he sports a mediocre record of 6-4 and at 38 it’s hard to envision him improving all too much anymore. Still, he’s a pretty dangerous guy who has knockout power and it’s hard to fully write him off just yet. He takes on O’Reilly in a battle of TUF Nations castmates looking to stay in the UFC, and it’s imperative he pulls out the win as another loss would certainly send Grujic packing from the organization. O’Reilly (5-1) is 0-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Lipeng Zhang. The 27-year-old Australian looked absolutely terrible in his UFC debut, getting taken down by Zhang for three rounds and losing a decision against a fighter who doesn’t have much talent. Prior to that UFC debut, O’Reilly was unbeaten in his pro career, but he fought absolute cans and when he went on TUF Nations he lost by submission to Kajan Johnson, who at this point of his career doesn’t have much left in the tank. Those two losses are extremely concerning, and honestly, I don’t really know why O’Reilly is in the UFC as he just doesn’t seem to have much talent. The UFC must see something in him that I don’t, because I feel like he’s one of the weakest fighters on the roster and an autofade nearly every time he fights, even against an older fighter coming off a knockout loss like Grujic. After seeing the way both fighters performed in their last respective outings, I don’t think it’s a good idea to bet on either fighter here. That being said, I do have to lean towards Grujic to get his hand raised here, even despite the fact he’s the older fighter. Seeing O’Reilly get laid on by Zhang for three rounds is extremely concerning, as is his recent loss to Johnson on TUF Nations. Grujic, meanwhile, hasn’t looked great in the UFC, losing to Taleb and Clements, but he does have that nice win over Indich which shows he still has something left in the tank despite his advanced age. In this matchup I feel like Grujic will be the bigger fighter and I think he can grind O’Reilly against the fence and get some takedowns to earn a decision win. Again, this isn’t a fight I recommend betting on considered how poor both guys have performed as of late, but I do feel like it’s a favorite-or-pass situation.
