One of the prelims at UFC 186 is a three-round lightweight bout between Chad Laprise and Bryan Barberena. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Laprise is a -325 favorite (bet $325 to win $100) while Barberena is a +265 underdog (bet $100 to win $265). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Laprise at -350 and Barberena at +250, and there hasn’t been much action on this bout as the lines have tightened. I agree with Laprise being the favorite in this fight but feel like the line is a bit too high for a bet. Here’s why. Laprise (9-0) won TUF Nations and has since gone on to post a 2-0 record in the UFC with decisions wins over Yosdenis Cedeno and Olivier Aubin-Mercier. The 28-year-old Canadian is a well-rounded mixed martial artist that keeps improving every fight. He has very good boxing and he has brutal knockout power, and he’s also improved his wrestling game. Training at TriStar now, Laprise is taking his career very seriously and definitely has solid potential at 155lbs. However, he has been generally untested in his career thus far, and while he does have great potential, he has not proven himself against a great fighter yet. Laprise is solid and will make some noise in the UFC, but until he beats someone of note it’s very tough to lay juice on him against an underrated fighter like Barberena, which is why I think the line is a bit high on him in this spot. Barberena (10-2) is 1-0 in the UFC with a knockout win over Joe Ellenberger. The 25-year-old American trains at the MMA Lab and continues to get better as a fighter every time he steps into the cage. Heading into his UFC debut, not many were giving him a chance against Ellenberger, but he showed in that fight that he has great cardio and brutal knockout power, coming back after being down early to stop Ellenberger in the third round. All told he has eight knockouts in his career and is currently riding a seven-fight win streak. He’s a solid, underrated prospect at 155lbs and if he can beat Laprise, the UFC is going to give him a step up. It’s not an easy matchup for Barberena as Laprise is so good in his own right, but Barberena definitely has a chance here, and it’d be silly to count him out completely in this spot. I think Laprise is the better fighter and most times he should be able to outpoint Barberena on the feet and earn a decision. However, I can’t write Barberena off completely. He’s not getting any respect from the betting public here, but he didn’t get any respect from the betting public in his debut against Ellenberger and we saw what happened there. Laprise is a very good fighter and has a bright future in the sport, but he’s still fairly untested and as we saw last weekend at UFC on FOX 15, laying huge juice on these unproven TUF winners is dangerous. I’m still picking Laprise to win this fight by decision because of the hometown advantage factor, but if Barberena wins it would not shock me in the slightest, and at the current odds I don’t see any value on Laprise for a bet.
