The main event of UFC 186 is a five-round title fight between UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger Kyoji Horiguchi. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Johnson is a -1000 favorite (bet $1000 to win $100) while Horiguchi is a +650 underdog (bet $100 to win $650). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Johnson at -505 and Horiguchi at +335, and so far all the action has come in on the champ Johnson. I agree with all the money coming in on Johnson as I fully expect him to win this fight in impressive fashion. Here’s why. Johnson (21-2-1) is the UFC flyweight champion. The 28-year-old American is 9-1-1 in the UFC with wins over Joseph Benavidez (twice), Ian McCall, John Moraga, John Dodson, Ali Bagautinov, Miguel Torres, Chris Cariaso and Kid Yamamoto with a draw to McCall and his lone loss coming to Dominick Cruz at 135lbs. Since dropping to 125lbs, Johnson is 7-0-1 and has turned into one of the most feared pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Johnson has fantastic wrestling that he is able to utilize it against almost all of his opponents, but he also has improving striking and his submissions are becoming a welcome addition to his game. He is known as one of the fastest fighters in the UFC and he has amazing cardio as he’s able to go five rounds strong every time he steps into the cage. He has very few flaws outside of maybe his takedown defence (the reason he lost to Cruz and Brad Pickett in the WEC), but at 125lbs that isn’t an issue. Johnson is one of the best in the world, and at UFC 186 he has the chance to take on an overmatched opponent, pick up another impressive victory, and move one step closer to the top of the P4P ranks. Horiguchi (15-1) is 4-0 in the UFC with knockout wins over Dustin Pague and Jon Delos Reyes and decision wins over Louis Gaudinot and Darrell Montague. The 24-year-old native of Japan is the top UFC flyweight prospect but is being forced into this title fight with Johnson due to a lack of other, fresh challengers in the division. Even Horiguchi himself said he wanted more Octagon experience before fighting for the title, but the UFC decided to give him the title shot anyways and he’ll look to make the most of the opportunity. A striker by trade, Horiguchi comes from a karate background and has shown very solid standup in his UFC career. He is lightning fast on the feet and he throws some extremely vicious kicks that most flyweights cannot take. He also has vicious ground and pound if he can get on top position on the ground. He hasn’t really shown any flaws, per se, but his wrestling has not been tested and he’s going up against the best wrestler in the division in Johnson this weekend. If Horiguchi can keep this fight on the feet he will have an outside shot of landing a knockout blow, but outside of that puncher’s chance this is a terrible matchup for him on paper and it’s not a shock he’s a massive underdog heading into this title fight. This is a huge mismatch, and not surprisingly the line is long in Johnson’s favor. Horiguchi is a good prospect, but he’s not ready for this fight and I’d be outright shocked if he found a way to win. I just don’t see how he can win this fight. Johnson is just so good. His wrestling is amazing, his submissions are fantastic, he’s so fast, his striking has improved so much, and he knows how to finish fights. The only way Horiguchi can win is if he catches Johnson on the chin and puts him out, but Johnson is so elusive and hard to hit that I don’t see that happening at all. I think Johnson is going to fight smart like he always does and use his wrestling to take this fight to the mat and find either a submission or a TKO on the ground. The line is high on Johnson, but I don’t blame anyone for padding their parlays with him. I think the better bet, though, is to take a shot on the Johnson wins inside the distance prop at plus money. I think it’s very likely he finds a finish on Horiguchi over the course of five rounds, and at plus-money odds, there’s enough value to take a shot at him winning this fight by stoppage.
