Many fighters have chased the dragon, but not many have really hit him. Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida is notoriously one of the most elusive fighters in UFC history. He slows the pace of the fight down to his own controlled level, draws opponents forward, and darts away at the slightest feint, just before erupting in a flurry of precise strikes. How do the rest of the fighters who are competing this weekend measure up in their ability to not get punched in the face? Note that we excluded the women’s Strawweights Felice Herrig and Paige VanZant from the graph below, as they have each had only one fight, and less than 15 minutes of Octagon time. In fact, neither Herrig nor VanZant was struck in the head once from a distance with a power strike during their UFC debuts, and so each would technically have a metric of 100%, the best possible score. Just don’t expect that to remain the case after their fight this weekend. So here are how the rest of the fighters on the Main and FOX Sports 1 prelim card stack up.
Chasing the Dragon – Most Elusive Fighters Machida, of course, tops the list here. Despite having more UFC appearances than any other fighter on the card, and having continuously faced top level talent, including numerous title fights, Machida has continued to make people miss at an impressive rate. Only 15% of his opponents’ power head strikes land from a distance, and the volume at which they land is similarly depressed due to Machida’s ability to slow fights down and avoid sloppy barnburners. Second on the list is Aljamain Sterling, who has managed to limit the amount of time he has spent trading from a distance (28% of total fight time) during his two UFC appearances to date. While he wasn’t often successful with his own strikes, he did limit the amount that he was hit on way to landing seven of nine takedown attempts. Luke Rockhold comes in at third, which fuels the intrigue for what should be a very technical striking battle in the main event. He’ll be chasing after the Dragon for sure, but with range and volume advantages, should at least find a few opportunities to lay hands on Machida. The question remains, how many counters will Rockhold get hit with in return? Patrick Cummins, like Aljamain Sterling, primarily has turned his fights into wrestling matches where he has an advantage. Like Sterling, he hasn’t been successful with offensive striking on the feet, but at least demonstrated good avoidance. That will be the key to his matchup against Ovince St-Preux, who is the hardest hitter on the entire card this weekend. Ronalda Souza is far more famous for his ground game, but recently displayed very competent striking. Though he is primarily a counter-striker, he is good at avoiding damaging blows and returning fire with better than average accuracy and power. Cub Swanson’s defensive ability is more impressive considering his willingness to stand and trade with opponents. Swanson has faced plenty of dangerous strikers, and to date, he has managed to maintain accuracy that is nearly twice as good as his opponents. In addition to the main event, Swanson’s matchup with Max Holloway will be the other striking duel to watch on the main card. Above Average Takeya Mizugaki has a base that includes Boxing, so it’s no surprise he’s learned the ole’ bob and weave. But to date, he has hasn’t fared well against wrestlers, making his matchup with Sterling more of a striker-grappler contest. Max Holloway has avoided strikes better than average on the way to instigating fast-paced slugfests. He has maintained good accuracy despite throwing high volume strikes, all the more reason to expect an exciting matchup with Cub Swanson on the main card. Jim Miller is a division stalwart with over three hours of Octagon time to his credit. While he doesn’t excel sharply in any particular areas, he has maintained above average performance metrics in a variety of ways despite having gone toe-to-toe with many of the division’s best. Chris Camozzi makes his return to the UFC as the biggest underdog on the card against Jacare Souza. His head strike defense has been just above average historically, but it won’t be nearly as important as his ability to stay off his back against Souza. Middle of the Pack Ovince St-Preux may be the hardest hitter on the card, and that’s good for him, because his striking defense could use improvement if he is going to make a run at the division’s best. However, in this particular matchup with wrestler Patrick Cummins, it will be OSP’s takedown defense that will be the key to winning. His chances are likely better than Camozzi’s but those are two of three matchups where position will mean everything. Corey Anderson is another guy with limited sample size through just two fights to date. But he matches up favorably with a long reach advantage over opponent Gian Villante this weekend, so he could improve his strike avoidance metric. Stop Blocking With Your Face Beneil Dariush started out a bit rough in the UFC with his striking, but has come a long way. Already an excellent grappler, Dariush showed that he can face down a strong striker like Daron Cruickshank in his impressive recent win just one month ago, although his metrics still reflect his first few UFC bouts where he hadn’t developed nearly as much in the striking realm. Gian Villante rounds out the bottom of the list, having eaten 35% of the power head strikes thrown at him from a distance. While his own accuracy is an impressive 39%, his low rate of volume means he’s generally eaten a few more strikes than he’s landed. That could spell trouble against a more aggressive striker like Anderson.