One of the prelims at UFC on FOX 15 is a three-round light heavyweight bout between Corey Anderson and Gian Villante. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Anderson is a -340 favorite (bet $340 to win $100) while Villante is a +280 underdog (bet $100 to win $280). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Anderson at -230 and Villante at +170, and bettors are all over the favorite Anderson in this one. I believe Anderson wins this fight and agree with him being the clear favorite. Here’s why. Anderson (5-0) won the TUF 19 light heavyweight tournament. The 25-year-old American is 2-0 in the UFC with a TKO win over Matt Van Buren and a decision win over Justin Jones. He has shown a very good grinding ability in his UFC career and has the cardio to go three strong rounds. He also has really big power in his hands and has the ability to knock 205lbers out in devastating fashion. He is still very green in MMA considering he has only five pro fights, but he’s looked great so far and considering he’s only 25, he has a lot of potential, especially in a weak division like light heavyweight. Anderson recently moved to Renzo Gracie’s camp to continue honing his skills, and that move across the country proves he is taking his career very seriously. He’s a top prospect at 205lbs, and if he takes out Villante he’ll continue to move up the ladder at light heavyweight. Villante (12-5) is 2-2 in the UFC with a decision win over Sean O’Connell and a TKO win over Cody Donovan, with decision losses to Ovince St-Preux and Fabio Maldonado. The 29-year-old American trains with UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman and overall he is a pretty solid light heavyweight with a decent kickboxing attack and some wrestling to go along with it. He’s a former football player so he’s clearly athletic, but I’m not sure he’ll ever reach the top of the MMA ranks. With nine finishes out of his 12 career victories it’s obvious Villante has finishing ability, but he’s only been finishing low-level fighters and nearly every time he’s stepped up in competition he’s lost. His main flaws are his cardio and his chin, neither of which are particularly good. Villante is a pretty good gatekeeper at 205lbs, but he’s no contender, and the UFC is clearly using him as a test for Anderson in this fight, as a win over a prospect like Anderson won’t do too much for Villante other than saving his job with the UFC, something which could be on the line if he loses this fight. I like Anderson here. I know he’s still pretty green, but I just don’t think much of Villante as a light heavyweight prospect, whereas I do believe Anderson has the potential to be top 15 in the division. Villante will have the hometown advantage here, which could make things interesting if the fight hits the judges’ cards, but I’m not sure if it gets there. We have seen Villante get rocked and knocked out before and Anderson absolutely has the finishing power to put him away if he connects with his chin. But even if Anderson doesn’t get the knockout, I think he can still use his striking and wrestling to win a decision. Everything points to Anderson getting his hand raised in this fight, so even at the high price he’s still someone to think about putting in your parlays this weekend.
