The main event of UFC on FOX 15 is a five-round middleweight bout between Luke Rockhold and Lyoto Machida. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Rockhold is a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) while Machida is a +130 underdog (bet $100 to win $130). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Rockhold at -140 and Machida at +100, and overall there has been slightly more support for Rockhold. I believe Rockhold will defeat Machida and agree with him being the favorite. Here’s why. Rockhold (13-2) is one of the best middleweights in MMA. The 30-year-old American is 3-1 in the UFC with submission wins over Michael Bisping and Tim Boetsch and a knockout win over Costas Philippou, with his lone loss coming to Vitor Belfort by KO. Prior to entering the UFC, Rockhold was the Strikeforce champion, having defeated top-ranked Ronaldo Souza by decision in a big upset back in 2011. He also holds a notable win over Tim Kennedy. A finisher, Rockhold has 11 stoppage wins in his career, with only Souza and Kennedy surviving the 25 minutes. Rockhold is good everywhere. He has a really effective, active kickboxing attack with knockout power in his hands and legs, he has excellent wrestling, and his submission game is out of this world. He uses his reach really well and is one of the biggest middleweights out there, making him a nightmare matchup for most in the 185lb division. He also has fantastic cardio and can easily go 25 minutes without even breaking a sweat. The only flaws he’s shown in his career have been in his striking defence and chin, as he’s been tagged in the past and knocked out in both of his career losses, to Belfort and to a journeyman earlier in his career. Still, the early-career loss can be written off and there is really no shame in getting knocked out by Belfort, so overall Rockhold is a guy who just hasn’t shown many holes in his game. He is a pleasure to watch fight, and if he beats Machida, he should finally get his crack at the UFC middleweight championship. Machida (22-5) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion. The 36-year-old Brazilian is 14-5 in the UFC, including a 3-1 record since moving down to 185lbs with middleweight victories over Mark Munoz, Gegard Mousasi and CB Dollaway, with his lone loss at the weight coming to the champ Weidman. Machida is a karate-based fighter and no one in MMA history has been more effective with his karate than Machida has been. His ability to thrown one accurate, devastating, and explosive strike is perhaps unparalleled. He has one-strike knockouts over the likes of Dollaway, Munoz, Randy Couture, Thiago Silva, Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans, which is a really, really impressive resume. In addition to his amazing striking, he is also an underrated wrestler and underrated on the ground. The biggest problem with Machida over the years has been his activity level. In some fights, like his fights with Phil Davis and Ramapge Jackson, Machida was the more effective striker but his lack of activity made the judges go the other way. Of course, those were bigger opponents, but still, sometimes he will just stand there looking for an opening for that one big shot and the judges will go against him. His style has worked in close fights against guys like Dan Henderson and Shogun Rua, but it didn’t work against Davis and Rampage and he was inactive in the first few rounds against Weidman, which cost him. No doubt he’s an amazing fighter, but going up against a longer, younger and more active fighter like Rockhold, Machida will have to be more active if he wants to win this fight, or at least land that one big strike to put his opponent away, and while it’s possible, it won’t be easy to do against a guy of Rockhold’s caliber, which is why he’s the dog heading into this fight despite all of his accolades in the UFC. This is an amazing fight, and could very well be a Fight of the Year candidate when it’s all said and done. Rockhold and Machida are two of the most talented, complete mixed martial artists on the planet at any weight class and so it’s a real treat that us fans get to watch them thrown down this weekend. This is not an easy fight to pick, but I have to lean Rockhold, for a few reasons. First off is the age advantage. We know that younger fighters usually beat older opponents, and while Machida has taken great care of his body, he’s still in his late 30s while Rockhold is in his early 30s. Next up is the size. Machida did fight at 205lbs for a long time, but Rockhold is still the bigger fighter here and he has the longer reach. I also think Rockhold has the wrestling advantage here. I think Machida is an underrated wrestler with solid takedown defence, but if Rockhold really tries to implement his wrestling in this fight, he can be successful with it. I also think that while Machida is a devastating striker and holds the power edge, I think that Rockhold is a much more active fighter and we all know the judges love when guys throw strikes, something Machida doesn’t do at times. I also give Rockhold the edge in submissions. To me, everything is adding up to Rockhold winning a decision here by outpointing Machida on the feet and winning a decision, but it’s very difficult to bet against Machida, who is a proven winner. Laying juice against Machida is typically a bad idea, but I can’t ignore all the advantages Rockhold has in this fight. If the line gets back to a Pick ’em price near fight time — and I expect it to as I see late money coming in on Machida — I’m gong to have to pull the trigger on the American to get the job done and pick up the biggest win of his career against the former light heavyweight champion.
