UFC on FOX 15 Date: April 18, 2015 Arena: Prudential Center City: Newark, NJ The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to New Jersey with UFC on FOX 15, headlined by a five round middleweight contest between top contenders Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and Luke Rockhold. The four-fight main card kicks off on FOX at 8pm, with preliminary action preceding it on the same channel at 6pm ET and UFC Fight Pass at 4:30pm prior to that. If interested in wagering on this parlay, or any other plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here is my two-way parlay for UFC on FOX 15: Women’s Strawweight bout: Felice Herrig (+115) vs Paige VanZant (-135) Gabe’s Thoughts: More or less, I expect the outcome of this women’s 115-pound match-up to be similar to that of Herrig’s against Tecia Torres under the Invicta banner, where she lost a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards after three rounds of action. I wouldn’t go as far as saying VanZant is as good a striker as Torres, however I do think she is better than Herrig and has a better chance of finishing the fight than Torres did. Herrig is the better pure kickboxer, but I think VanZant’s aggressiveness and effectiveness on the feet will overwhelm Herrig, as I see her being the fighter who moves forward, dictating Octagon control. I think Herrig will be moving backwards and counter-striking in this fight, and I don’t think she is going to find too much success against the constantly improving VanZant. On that same note, I believe Herrig is past her prime and has started her decline, while I don’t think Van Zant has yet to even reach her prime. VanZant possesses the aggression and killer instinct to get the job done this Saturday night. I think there’s a good chance her pressure and offense will be too much for Herrig and we ultimately see her making Herrig quit. To put it simply, I expect VanZant to extend her Octagon winning streak to two on Saturday night, and I think it’s a coin-flip whether it comes inside the distance or on the cards. At her current betting price of -135, I see a lot of value in her. Gabe’s Call: VanZant by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Light Heavyweight bout: Corey Anderson (-320) vs Gian Villante (+260) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Anderson should be a -320 favorite in this match-up only if he’s fighting with a busted knee and two broken hands, which I don’t believe is the case. I think he has the option to either knock Villante out on the feet or take him down and dominate him on the mat, likely earning a stoppage there. Outside of a disqualification, I can’t imagine another way Anderson could lose this fight. Even in my wildest of imaginations, I am unable to see Villante pulling off a submission or a knockout. Of course, every fighter has a puncher’s chance, as far as the knockout is concerned, and Villante generally packs good power in his punches, but I think Anderson can eat his best shots and keep moving forward to score effortless takedowns. For this fight to play out any other way than a complete one-sided fight in favor of Anderson, Villante would have to have made some drastic improvements since his last outing, and I think that is highly unlikely. The striking may be a wash, but Anderson has a massive edge in grappling, as well as cardio, and that should be more than enough to extend his Octagon winning streak to three in dominant fashion. Gabe’s Call: Anderson by T/KO (punches, 2:24 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: VanZant (-135) and Anderson (-320) at +128 for 5u to win 6.42u
