UFC Fight Night 64 Date: April 4, 2015 Arena: Patriot Center City: Fairfax, VA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) makes a trip to Poland for the first time in UFC history with UFC Fight Night 63, which will be live tomorrow from Krakow, Poland and headlined by a heavyweight rematch between Mirko Cro Cop and Gabriel Gonzaga. The 12-fight card will stream entirely live on UFC Fight Pass, with the four-fight main card kicking off at 1pm ET and eight-fight preliminary action preceding it at 11:15am ET. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals for UFC Fight Night 64 in Krakow are: Welterweight bout: Bartosz Fabinski (-125) vs Garreth McLellan (+105) Gabe’s Thoughts: Despite the fact that Fabinski is taking this fight on short notice (as an injury replacement for Poland’s Kystzstof Jotko), I favor him to get his hand raised when it’s all said and done, and I favor him to do so on the judges’ scorecards. That said, I think there is more value in the total of Over 2.5 rounds at -140 than there is in Fabinski at -125, as I think this fight goes over the 2.5 round mark more often than Fabinski gets his hand raised, because I feel like this is a fight McLellan could win. I would not be surprised if Fabinski makes this fight completely one-sided, nor would I be surprised to see him barely edge out a decision. I think Fabinski is a solid fighter, but I am not too sold on McLellan yet, so this contest should answer some questions. Despite the outcome, I think there’s a good chance this fight reaches the mid-way point of the third round and likely see the judges’ scorecards for a decisin. Gabe’s Call: Fabinski by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-140) 3.15u to win 2.25u Lightweight bout: Marcin Bandel (+170) vs Stevie Ray (-200) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, this is likely going to be either Bandel by Submission or Ray by T/KO, and while I am not overly confident, I think the total of Under 1.5 rounds at -165 is worth a little play. Gabe’s Call: Ray by T/KO (strikes, 2:20 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (-165) 1.4u to win .85u Note: I also have a parlay of Pawlak/Westcott Under 1.5 rounds (+155) and Lebout/Moraes Under 1.5 rounds (+130) at +486 for 1.75u to win 8.51u
