One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 64 is a three-round women’s strawweight bout between Joanne Calderwood and Maryna Moroz. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Calderwood is a -550 favorite (bet $550 to win $100) while Moroz is a +425 underdog (bet $100 to win $425). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Calderwood at -565 and Moroz at +375, and Calderwood remains a bit favorite as the lines have tightened. I agree with Calderwood being a big favorite here as I fully expect her to win this contest. Here’s why. Calderwood (9-0) is one of the top female strawweight fighters in the world. The 28-year-old proud native of Scotland is 1-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Seohee Ham at the TUF 20 Finale. She competed in the TUF house and went 1-1 with a decision win over Emily Kagan and a submission loss to Rose Namajunas. Prior to the UFC she was in Invicta and went 4-0. She also competed in the India Super Fight League and Cage Warriors Fighting Championsip. She is a muay Thai striker and has four knockout wins in her career, but she’s really improved her wrestling in recent years and also has five decision wins. She is likely next in line for a title shot against champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk if she defeats Moroz, and with a card coming to her native Glasgow this summer, you better believe she’ll be highly motivated to defeat Moroz in devastating fashion. Moroz (5-0) is making her UFC debut after going undefeated on the European regional circuit. The 23-year-old native of Ukraine is a submission-based fighter and has four career tapout wins to her credit, as well as a TKO win. She began her career in 2013 and is still relatively green in the sport, but so far she has looked great. However, she has not fought a UFC-caliber fighter and fighting Calderwood in Krakow is a massive step up in competition. Moroz has shown off of a good ground game, but has not fought anyone with the takedown defence of Calderwood yet. She has also not fought someone with Calderwood’s credentials on the feet. Moroz is going to have to hit a flying armbar or something in this one, because otherwise she’s in way over her head here and I don’t know how she’ll win this fight. Moroz can win some fights in the UFC, but not this fight. Calderwood is just a lot farther along in her development, and with a title shot presumably on the line, I believe she will rise to the occasion and win this fight. To me, this is a stay-busy fight for Calderwood, and I would legitimately be very surprised if she lost this fight to Moroz. Because of the submission loss to Namajunas on TUF, I expect Calderwood to use her wrestling in reverse and keep this fight standing and either knock Moroz out or win a decision. Even though -550 is high, I believe Calderwood could be a 10-to-1 favorite here and see value on her as a parlay piece at UFC Fight Night 64.
