By @fightnomics In the UFC’s third trip to Virginia, the card is loaded with the lighter weight classes. Smaller fighters usually fight at a higher rate, but there’s still a lot of variance in the striking pace within a division. This fight card is no different with plenty of frenzied strikers, but several are paired with a contrasting style in their opponent. And there’s also a surprising twist to the main event. Let’s see how the main card competitors stack up in terms of standup striking pace:
Barnburner Potential The best case for a barnburner is probably when Mike Chiesa meets Mitch Clarke. If the two stand and trade, the activity level could be quite high. Both men tend to outwork their opponents on the feet, so the combination of aggressiveness should reinforce the action. However, there’s a reason that Chiesa is a clear betting favorite, and that’s due to Clarke’s poor accuracy and defense amidst his elevated pace. So despite having the highest pace on the card, Clarke will still have an uphill battle against the more technical veteran. Contrasting Styles Two successful grapplers Dustin Poirier and Carlos Diego Ferreira are matched up together, but before it goes to the ground, Poirier will have a striking advantage over the more ground-centric Brazilian. Poirier has only lost to high quality opponents, so this matchup is a great test of Ferreira’s potential. And in a complete contrast of styles, Al Iaquinta will have a big striking advantage over Jorge Masvidal, who does his best work on the mat. Iaquinta’s takedown defense will be the key to this matchup, because if it hits the ground, Masvidal will have the upper hand. Robbie Peralta is another guy hoping to keep the fight standing when he faces gritty wrestler Clay Guida. Although Guida is known for his Energizer Bunny style of bouncy standup, it doesn’t translate into many actual strikes thrown. Peralta’s striking metrics are a clean sweep over Guida’s, but on the mat it’s a totally different story – one that Guida is hoping to leverage with his recent transition to Team Alpha Male. If he’s successful, this fight may not be as exciting as it looked on paper. With very limited data on the women’s matchup, the early results suggest that Julianna Pena will be the more aggressive striker. But neither woman landed a single standing power head strike in their UFC debuts, and Pena didn’t land any standing head strikes at all. That didn’t matter, as she still got a first round finish to win the women’s 135 Ultimate Fighter title. But due to a controversial knee injury, it’s taken her 480 days to return to the Octagon for her first post-TUF matchup. Could Be a Slow Start The main event featuring Chad Mendes and Ricardo Lamas also features two of the most reserved standup strikers on the card. That could mean we’ll be in for a lot of measuring and staring to the start the bout, as both men wait for the other to start the engagement. The matchup itself is quite intriguing, and has definite title implications further down the road. Both men tend to punch harder than their division peers, so what they lack in volume is made up for in strength. Mendes is currently the betting favorite, but Lamas has beaten the odds on numerous occasions. It may start slow, but it’s still a must-see fight. Don’t forget to check the “Fightnomics” book to learn all about these and other MMA performance metrics.