One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 62 is a three-round women’s bantamweight bout between Shayna Baszler and Amanda Nunes. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Nunes is a -420 favorite (bet $420 to win $100) while Baszler is a +335 underdog (bet $100 to win $335). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Nunes at -280 and Baszler at +200 and the bettors are all over Nunes so far. I like Nunes here as well and agree she should be a big favorite over the fading Baszler. Here’s why. Nunes (9-4) is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Sheila Gaff and Germaine de Randamie with a loss to Cat Zingano. The 26-year-old Brazilian is a very effective wrestler and once she establishes top control she rains down ground and pound like not many other women can in the UFC women’s bantamweight division. She has won eight fight via T/KO in her career and keeps getting better and better every time out. She is coming off of a loss to Zingano in which she herself was finished late, but up until that point she looked great and the punches she landed on Zingano’s chin would have put many other women out. However, she once again showed her main flaw, bad cardio, and it cost her. Fortunately for Nunes the UFC is giving her a matchup with another woman with bad cardio in Baszler, someone who has been knocked out many times before, and not surprisingly Nunes is the favorite heading into the fight. Baszler (15-9) was one of the pioneers of women’s MMA but he has faded badly and it seems like she is on the last legs of her career. The 34-year-old American competed on TUF 18 where she lost in surprising fashion to eventual winner Julianna Pena and then she lost in her UFC debut via TKO to Bethe Correia. Baszler is a legit grappler and has won 14 fights in her career by submission, but other than her submission prowess she doesn’t offer up much else in her game. Her striking is lousy, her cadio is poor, and her wrestling isn’t as effective as it once was. This fight with Nunes seems like a nightmare matchup for her. Unless Nunes gasses badly and Baszler ends up in a dominant position on the ground late in the fight, it seems like a near-impossible task, and that’s why you see her as such a big dog in this fight. Boy, this is a bad matchup for Baszler. I just don’t see how she wins this fight unless somehow she can miraculously survive the first two rounds and then take over in the third against Nunes like Zingano did. But I just don’t see that happening since Baszler’s cardio is just as bad as Nunes’. I expect this to be Baszler’s last fight in the UFC, and potentially, as a pro. I think Nunes is going to take her down and brutally ground and pound her en route to a first-round stoppage victory. Even at the current price, Nunes is definitely someone to keep in mind for parlays this weekend as I believe she’s a very likely winner in this spot.
