The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 62 is a three-round welterweight bout between Erick Silva and Josh Koscheck. According to the current betting lines available at 5Dimes Sportsbook, Silva is a -500 favorite (bet $500 to win $100) while Koscheck is a +400 underdog (bet $100 to win $400). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Silva at -405 and Koscheck at +285 and so far the bettors are all over Silva as they are fading Koscheck following a string of stoppage losses. I too think Silva is going to get the job done here and understand why he is such a big favorite. Here’s why. Silva (17-5, 1 NC) is 5-4 in the UFC with wins over Luis Ramos, Mike Rhodes, Jason High, Charlie Brenneman and Takenori Sato with losses to Dong Hyun Kim, Matt Brown, Jon Fitch and Carlo Prater (via DQ). An extremely-explosive athlete, the 30-year-old Brazilian is a true finisher, having won 10 fights via submission and another four via T/KO in his career. He is a frontrunner, though, and if he doesn’t finish his opponents in the first round he almost always loses later in the fight. He has shown during his UFC run that the can beat the mid-tier fighters in the lightweight division, but when he steps up in competition he has lost and lost badly in most cases. Silva was once considered a top welterweight contender, but as his UFC career has gone on it’s clear he’s more of a pretender than actual contender. Still, he’s an extremely dangerous fighter and going up against a fighter on the downside of his career like Kosheck who has chin issues in his home country of Brazil, it makes sense that Silva is a big favorite here. Koscheck (17-9) was a cast member on season one of TUF and has since gone on to post a 15-9 record in the UFC with wins over the likes of Anthony Johnson, Matt Hughes, Paul Daley and Diego Sanchez, with most of his losses coming to the cream of the crop of the sport like Georges St-Pierre, Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks. Now 37, the American is one the last legs of his career and has lost his last four fights — his last three coming by way of brutal stoppage. He just competed last month at UFC 184, getting choked out in brutal fashion by Jake Ellenberger, but he thinks this fight against Silva is a winnable one for him and is taking it on short notice. But it’s a dangerous fight for him to take. With his chin issues and going up against an explosive striker like Silva, this has all the makings of a bad night for Koscheck. His only way to win will be if Silva can’t finish him early and slows down late and Koscheck wrestles him for a decision like Fitch did, but that doesn’t seem likely at all, and not surprisingly you see Koscheck enter this fight as a big dog. Silva is a flawed fighter, but he should still be able to beat the aging Koscheck, likely in devastating fashion. I don’t like how Koscheck took this fight so soon after his brutal submission loss to Ellenberger, and the fact it’s in Silva’s backyard of Silva isn’t going to help. If Silva can’t finish Koscheck in round one and he gasses out, Koscheck could make this fight interesting with his wrestling, but I don’t think he makes it out of the first stanza. I think Silva lands something heavy early on, either a punch, kick or a flying knee, and puts Koscheck out cold. The line for Silva is steep, but he’s someone to think about using in a parlay this weekend.
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