Next Saturday the Octagon travels back to Brazil for a Fox Sports 1 event with former title challenger Demian Maia in the headlining position. Maia’s last opportunity in a main event in Brazil saw him drop a somewhat surprising decision to Jake Shields after five technical rounds of grappling. He could be in for much of the same against undefeated wrestler Ryan LaFlare, although the New Yorker does have a well-rounded game which he may try to show off against one of the best grapplers to ever compete in the sport. The co-main event sees another veteran continue the trend of taking fights on short notice to help prop up cards marred by injuries. This time however, there isn’t much optimism for the vet as Josh Koscheck steps in to face Erick Silva after a less-than-inspiring performance at UFC 184. Silva has alternated wins and losses in his nine UFC appearances, and this may be an opportunity for him to finally start a winning streak in the organization. The main card also features talented Brazilians like Gilbert Burns (taking on promotional newcomer Alex Oliveira), Amanda Nunes (facing Shayna Baszler), and Godofredo Pepey in what could be the fight of the night against Andre Fili. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the entire UFC Fight Night 62 card today at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Check them out below, including totals for all of the fights: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET)

Moneyline Total
Ryan LaFlare -125 Over 3.5 -150
Demian Maia -115 Under 3.5 +110
Erick Silva -405 Over 1.5 +110
Josh Koscheck +285 Under 1.5 -150
Gilbert Burns -475 Over 1.5 -150
Alex Oliveira +325 Under 1.5 +110
Leonardo Santos -180 Over 1.5 -190
Tony Martin +140 Under 1.5 +150
Amanda Nunes -280 Over 1.5 -155
Shayna Baszler +200 Under 1.5 +115
Andre Fili -280 Over 1.5 -160
Godofredo Pepey +200 Under 1.5 +120

PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET)

Moneyline Total
Francisco Trinaldo -280 Over 1.5 -180
Akbarh Arreola +200 Under 1.5 +140
Kevin Souza -185 Over 1.5 -160
Katsunori Kikuno +145 Under 1.5 +120
Leandro Silva -160 Over 2.5 -230
Drew Dober +120 Under 2.5 +170
Leonardo Mafra -150 Over 1.5 -150
Cain Carrizosa +110 Under 1.5 +110

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7pm ET)

Moneyline Total
Christos Giagos -190 Over 2.5 -150
Jorge de Oliveira +150 Under 2.5 +110
Bentley Syler -140 Over 2.5 -210
Freddy Serrano +100 Under 2.5 +160

Brad’s Analysis: With so many lines being opened at once, I’ll try to keep these relatively brief. I do favor LaFlare to beat Maia in the main event, as his wrestling should be good enough to keep this standing until Maia begins to tire. At that point LaFlare should be able to make his striking advantage really count, and have the ability to mix in takedowns. Maia will obviously be dangerous with his grappling in the early going, but his cardio seems to be fading as he ages, and I think it lets him down once again. I’m hoping some action comes in on Maia and I can find a plus number on LaFlare, but if the line moves towards the American any further I don’t think I’ll bet it. If you’re betting Erick Silva, just wait for the ‘Round 1’ prop, as he never seems to win any other way. If this does get into round two and three, Silva may still be able to pull out a victory judging by how tentative Koscheck was against Ellenberger, but I’m not prepared to take that chance. The UFC seems to like what they have in Gilbert Burns, and it’s hard to blame them. He’s a good prospect working at a good camp and making noticeable improvements. I’m not sure I see an area where Oliveira is better than him right now, and I expect this to be one of the most popular parlay pieces on the card. I feel like Tony Martin could win this fight if he wasn’t Tony Martin. Any fighter with his skills and some semblance of decent cardio could handle Leonardo Santos, but unfortunately Martin has terrible cardio, and even worse reactions in the fight once that cardio starts to creep up. Heading to Brazil normally isn’t something that will help your conditioning, and I don’t see Martin finishing Santos like he did Camoes, so I have to lean with the Brazilian here even though I’ve been searching for a spot to fade him. Shayna Baszler is pretty much what a shot fighter looks like. Injuries, age, and just regular wear-and-tear have caught up to her like few other female fighters. She still has the submission game which can pose a threat to Nunes, but I don’t think her physical limitations will ever allow her to do so in this spot. Fili and Pepey will be fun as long as it lasts, since both guys are generally entertaining, gifted offensive fighters. The difference here is that Fili is the more durable of the two and has the better defense. Pepey tries to make up for those flaws in his game with pure aggression, but I just don’t see it working against Fili who can match a lot of what Pepey can do in this fight, and can withstand far more. Akbarh Arreola is never a fighter I’ve been particularly high on, but he has made some improvements recently, so I have to give him a bit of credit. With the pleasantries aside, I don’t think he has much of a shot here. Arreola doesn’t offer much on the feet, has a rather poor chin, and may even be at a cardio disadvantage against Trinaldo of all people. His grappling is effective at times, but I don’t think he’ll get on top in this fight, and that’s where most of his success comes from. Whether Trinaldo cracks him early and finishes it off, or simply outpoints him on the feet and with takedowns, I like the Brazilian here. Kevin Souza seems like he could be really, really good, but then he goes out and struggles against Mark Eddiva. It’s confusing, because I still favor him against a far better striker (and overall fighter) in Kikuno, but I don’t feel good about it. Souza should win this on pace alone, as Kikuno’s karate style doesn’t play well to judges, but perhaps he can land a few takedowns if Souza starts reaching for his strikes. If that happens, I could see the upset, but Souza should be smarter than that. Silva and Dober was a tough fight for me to call at first, but then I went back and watched Silva’s recent performances and I think he should handle Dober with the improvements he’s made in his game. His wrestling looked better against Trinaldo, and his submission game looked excellent against Brenneman. Dober has good takedown defense and fights at a good pace, but I still see Silva controlling this fight by capitalizing on Dober’s porous defense and mixing in some takedown attempts, even if they just end up pushing the American against the cage. Mafra and Carrizosa is tough to call because we haven’t seen much of Carrizosa, and what we have seen of Mafra doesn’t inspire any confidence. This is likely a case of Mafra early or Carrizosa late, but I’ll be saving my money unless the line goes crazy in either direction. Christos Giagos got a tough assignment in his UFC debut, so this is his real chance to show what he can do, and I expect him to look good. Oliveira is solid on the feet, but I think Giagos can keep the fight competitive standing and use his superior grappling to win a decision like Dhiego Lima was able to. I’ll need to head back and watch TUF Latin America again before making a true breakdown of this bout, but my distant memories of the show have me thinking that Bentley Syler will still be significantly smaller than Freddy Serrano even at 125, and Serran should be able to control position to win a decision here.


Disclaimer: This page contains affiliate links and MMA Odds Breaker will be compensated if you make a purchase after clicking on the links.

Share