By @fightnomics As it turns out UFC 185 has a few very talented strikers in display, so that could make for some fun striking matchups when the UFC hits Dallas this weekend. We’ve already examined striking pace for these fighters, so which strikers really excel, and which ones fall short in their ability to connect with their target? Here’s how they stack up in one graph, and some takeaways for this weekend’s matchups.
For more on these and other MMA performance metrics, get the book “Fightnomics.” Note: small sample size <15 minutes for Cejudo and Esparza.
Snipers Former K-1 Kickboxing champion Alistair Overeem tops the list with 47% power head striking accuracy from a distance. Heavyweights in general have higher accuracy, but landing nearly half of all power head strikes is impressive by any standard when your opponent is doing everything they can to avoid them. He’ll be paired up with the much less technical, but arguably more powerful Roy Nelson in a fight that is not expected to go the distance. When Henry Cejudo made his UFC debut, he was expected to put the wrestling skills that won him Olympic gold on display. Instead, we saw some very sharp striking that suggests Cejudo is ready to make a title run at Flyweight with a double-threat attack. Flyweights are actually the hardest to hit, so if Cejudo can maintain his high accuracy, he’ll definitely be a major force in the division. Matt Brown’s 35% power accuracy is also impressive, and perhaps it’s partly due to his very long reach of 76” at Welterweight. He’ll have a huge reach advantage against Johny Hendricks, though Hendricks has been able to perform well against the division’s best despite prior reach disadvantages. Ross Pearson definitely likes to stand and trade, and his 31% accuracy and five career knockdowns have led to his share of striking finishes. He’s facing another fighter in Sam Stout who loves to keep things standing, so look for these two to trade plenty of leather. A surprising performer is Johny Hendricks, who not only was primarily a wrestler before transitioning to MMA, but is also very short-ranged for his division. Somehow he has overcome frequent reach disadvantages and found his target, sometimes in devastating fashion. Anthony Pettis combines power and control with his highly accurate striking to put forward one of the most exciting and dangerous striking attacks the Lightweight division has to offer. Hopefully he’ll stay on his feet long enough to demonstrate it. Middle of the Pack Roy Nelson may look more like the “average” fan than any other fighter, and when it comes to accuracy, he’s also average. Fortunately for Nelson, not only does he hit much harder than average, his opponent is much less capable of taking a punch than he is. That makes Nelson a live dog, despite being technically out-gunned in the striking department. Carla Esparza only has one official UFC fight to date, but it was a title-matchup with talented striker Rose Namajunas. So despite being around “average” in striking, Esparza is a champion primarily thanks to her ground game, but apparently can at least hold her own on her feet. She’ll need that against her very high-paced challenger this weekend. Chris Cariaso competes in the very elusive Flyweight division, and is coming off a fight with the dominant champion Demetrious Johnson. Those factors can’t help his numbers, but he’s certainly no slouch on the feet. Still, he has a tough matchup with Cejudo, who is the biggest favorite on the card. Missing the Target You may be wondering why I gave Jedrzejczyk the evil red color when she has 25% accuracy, while Cariaso was middle of the pack at 25%. That’s because the women’s UFC divisions have averaged higher than normal accuracy. So despite being primarily a striker, the women’s Strawweight challenger has actually come in below average for her division. Esparza came in a little higher, but again her sample size is the smallest on the main card. Perhaps more surprising is that veteran and current Lightweight challenger Rafael dos Anjos comes in towards the bottom of the list at just 20%. He’ll have an uphill battle against the much more accurate Pettis in the final fight of the night. And the surprises don’t stop there, as former kickboxer Sam Stout comes in with the worst accuracy of all at 16%. That’s not just low, that’s actually tied for the second lowest of all active UFC fighters! So he’s another competitor who will need to be on top of his game as he faces a historically much more accurate opponent. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here. Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis, or on Facebook, if you prefer. Want to put your knowledge to the test in Fantasy MMA for cash? Use the code “FIGHTNOMICS” for an immediate 25% deposit bonus at Kountermove.