One of the main card bouts at UFC 185 is a three-round welterweight bout between Johny Hendricks and Matt Brown. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Hendricks is a -350 favorite (bet $350 to win $100) while Brown is a +290 underdog (bet $100 to win $290). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Hendricks at -270 and Brown at +190 and the public is siding with the former champ Hendricks so far. I agree with the money coming in on Hendricks as I fully expect him to win this fight. Here’s why. Hendricks (16-3) is the former UFC welterweight champion and overall has achieved a 13-3 record in the UFC with wins over the likes of Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit, Martin Kampmann, Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, amongst others, and with his only losses coming to Lawler, Georges St-Pierre and Rick Story in close fights. The former champ is a tremendous talent. He has some of the best wrestling in the entire sport and I would argue he is the best wrestler in the welterweight division right now. He also has very good striking, including a huge left hand that packs massive power. He has shown a great chin in his fights and overall his cardio has held up in five-round fights, although in the rematch against Lawler his conditioning did let him down. There has been concerns about Hendricks’ conditioning in his last few fights, but it seems like he has taken care of those issues and that can only help him. Hendricks is the former champ and badly wants his belt back, and Brown is the man on his way to the title, and this has the potential to be a great fight. Brown (19-12) was a contestant on TUF 7 and has since gone onto achieve a 12-6 record in the UFC with wins over the likes of Erick Silva, Mike Pyle, Jordan Mein and Stephen Thompson, amongst others. Brown is one of the most aggressive fighters in the UFC and his fights are constantly entertaining, and I’d argue he’s one of the most exciting fighters in the sport at the moment. He has vicious muay Thai on the feet and has stopping power in all of his limbs, with 12 of his career victories coming by way of TKO. After a rough start to his UFC career, Brown made massive improvements and from 2012-2014 racked up seven-straight victories, culminating in a title eliminator against Lawler last summer. He lost that fight by decision, but he was very competitive in it and overall I think he’s one of the best fighters in the division. Having said that, he’s not without his flaws. Despite his improvements, this is still the same guy who has been submitted nine times in his career and overall he doesn’t have a great ground game. And that’s definitely a concern going up against a wrestler like Hendricks who likely plants him on his back. I really like Hendricks here and I favor him to pick up a decision victory over the durable Brown. I know Brown has looked great the last few years, but this is a guy who historically has been taken down and submitted and Hendricks is a tremendous wrestler, arguably the best in the division. I think Hendricks is going to watch through Brown’s strikes, push him up against the fence, get the takedowns, and control him in all three rounds en route to a decision win. And even if the fight stays standing I still favor Hendricks, too — remember, this guy went 10 rounds with Lawler and arguably outstruck him. Basically I like Hendricks everywhere, and I fully expect him to win the fight. At the current odds, I see value on Hendricks as potential parlay material.
