By @fightnomics There are some potential barnburners on tap at UFC 185, as well as some fights that will have very tentative striking. And there are several more that clearly pit contrasting styles against each other. The pace of standup striking is a good hint as to how a fighter likes to engage while standing. And since every fight starts out on the feet, it’s interesting to see how fighters compare to the average, and what it might mean for their matchup. Of the winners of this metric this weekend, veteran Sam Stout and young contender Joanna Jedrzejczyk each keep up a striking pace that is almost twice the UFC average, which will play a factor in how their respective matchups play out. But in these two cases, aggressive standup alone may not be enough, as they are both underdogs. Who else likes to press the pace or prefers instead to hang back?
For more on these and other MMA performance metrics, get the book “Fightnomics.”
Pedal to the Metal There are two pairings at UFC 185 where both fighters are above average in their striking pace, or average in pace facing a high-paced striker. Lots of action is usually a good ingredient for fight of the night potential, and the matchup between Johny Hendricks and Matt Brown already has generated plenty of buzz in that department. Both men like to push a higher than average pace, and both are also very durable, meaning this could go the distance but with lots of striking exchanges along the way. Similarly, Ross Pearson may come out about average overall in his standup pace, but he generally keeps up with opponents and Stout is one of the highest-paced strikers on the card. Neither man looks to go to the ground, so this should be a good standup striking duel. Pearson is the more accurate and powerful striker, but Stout’s pace presents a threat that Pearson has to take seriously since his loss to the aggressive, but less effective, Diego Sanchez. Contrasting Styles A very low pace of striking for a fighter can mean a lot of things. Perhaps it’s from facing other tentative strikers, or perhaps it’s because a fighter is looking to get the fight to the ground. Either way there are several matchups between fighters who are on opposite sides of the UFC average for standup pace, and in these cases the numbers hint at potential position battles. In the co-main event, Strawweight champion Carla Esparza will probably be looking for openings to get the fight to the ground. That’s because she’s not necessarily a striking threat, and her opponent Joanna Jedrzejczyk knows how to keep up a blistering pace. The fact that Jedrzejczyk has more than doubled the output of her opponents, as well as the average pace of Esparza’s standup game means the champion is asking for trouble if she chooses the leave the fight standing. Down on the prelims is a very intriguing matchup between 2nd degree Tae Kwon Do black belt Daron Cruickshank and jiu-jitsu black belt Beniel Dariush. Grappling has been Dariush’s strength, and a weakness for Cruickshank. While it’s standing, Cruickshank will have a clear advantage in pace, as well as the threat of his dangerous head kicks. Lots of “Feeling Out” Time Heavyweights aren’t known for their furious pace, so much as for the furious power in their hands. And the two Heavyweight matchups on the docket at UFC 185 may have some very tentative starts. Overeem and Nelson combine for just 12.7 strike attempts per minute from a distance, which is lower than seven other individual fighters on the card. And between Jared Rosholt and Josh Copeland, they’ll combine for just 11.2 attempts per minute on average, which would be about average for a single fighter. Yet as with all Heavyweight matchups it’s not the volume that counts, and in the blink of an eye it only takes one strike to end the fight. So while these heavyweight fights may lack fast-paced action, they may still provide highlight reel finishes. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here. Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis, or on Facebook, if you prefer. Want to put your knowledge to the test in Fantasy MMA for cash? Use the code “FIGHTNOMICS” for an immediate 25% deposit bonus at Kountermove.