One of the prelims at UFC 185 is a three-round flyweight bout between Sergio Pettis and Ryan Benoit. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Pettis is a -420 favorite (bet $420 to win $100) while Benoit is a +335 underdog (bet $100 to win $335). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Pettis at -425 and Benoit at +305, and the line has held steady with Pettis entrenched as a heavy favorite. I agree that Pettis deserves to be a heavy favorite here as I fully expect him to win this fight. Here’s why. Pettis (12-1) is 3-1 overall in the UFC with wins over Matt Hobar, Will Campuzano and Yaotzin Meza and a loss to Alex Caceres. The 21-year-old American is the younger brother of UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis and has a ton of potential in this sport. After realizing he was too small to wrestle with the bigger bantamweights, Pettis made a wise decision to drop down to 125lbs and I expect him to have great success at this weight class. Armed with phenomenal striking and slick submissions, the younger Pettis is a dynamic fighter just like his big brother and the UFC has matched up with an overmatched opponent for his UFC flyweight debut. As long as Pettis can stay off of his back for three rounds, he should win this fight, and that’s why you see the line the way it is. Benoit (7-3) is 0-1 in the UFC with a submission loss to Josh Sampo back in November 2013. The 25-year-old American hasn’t fought since that fight, but as a young fighter I think it’s safe to assume he has improved in that time off. That being said, he will definitely be dealing with ring rust in his return to the cage. Benoit is a solid all-around flyweight fighter who has pretty good wrestling skills and stopping ability in his hands. He has six knockouts which at 125lbs is very impressive and shows that he throws with force. Having said that, while he is a gifted offensive fighter he makes mistakes on the ground and that cost him against Sampo. If this fight goes to the ground and Benoit makes a similar mistake against Pettis, it’s likely his opponent will pounce, and with Pettis being ultra dangerous both on the ground and on the feet, Benoit is going to have to not make any mistakes for 15 minutes anywhere this fight goes, and that seems like a tall task. I don’t see this being a competitive fight, even with Pettis dropping down to flyweight. With all due respect to Benoit, the UFC wants Pettis to win this fight in impressive fashion and continue his development, and I think that’s the most-likely scenario. Although Pettis has been winning decisions for the most part in the UFC, I really think there’s a chance he gets a stoppage in this fight, either by submission or knockout. I just see Benoit being overmatched in the striking and grappling departments and unless he can lay on Pettis for 15 minutes, I don’t see how he wins this fight. At the current price, I will be putting Pettis into a parlay this weekend.
