UFC Fight Night 61 Date: February 22, 2014 Arena: Gigantinho Gymnasium City: Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Brazil tonight with UFC Fight Night 61: Bigfoot vs Mir. The event will feature an entirety of 11-bouts, including a six-fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it on FOX Sports 2 at 6pm ET with four fights, and two fights before it at 5:30pm ET on UFC Fight Pass. If interested on making any wagers for this fight card, all lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 61 in Brazil are: Heavyweight bout: Antonio Silva (-235) vs Frank Mir (+215) Mir Wins in Round One (+725) .4u to win 2.9u Fight Won’t Start Round Two (+155) .55u to win .85u Fight Won’t Start Round Three (-150) 1.5u to win 1u Fight Won’t Start Round Four (-252) 1.26u to win .5u Simply put, I think the most likely outcome to this match-up is Mir stopping Silva, and I favor him to get the job done in the first frame. For a full write-up on this five round heavyweight main event, I refer you to my fight article for the contest. Welterweight bout: Santiago Ponzinibbio (+170) vs Sean Strickland (-185) Strickland by Decision (+239) .5u to win 1.19u Strickland is dropping down from middleweight down to the welterweight division for this bout and both of these 170-pounders are gunning for a finish in this scrap. I would not be surprised if one of them meets their goal and stops the other, however both of these fighters are very tough and hard to put away, not to mention they possess great heart, so I think they are both capable of surviving, should get find themselves in trouble in the course of the 15-minutes of action. If a finish does occur, I think it will most likely be Strickland getting a rear naked choke on the Argentinian when he has terribly fatigued in the third frame. That said, I think he is more likely to tough it, use his solid defense and survive ‘till the final bell. To conclude, I think Strickland winning a decision is the most likely outcome to this 170-pound affair and at +239, I do favor it for a wager. For my full write-up, please refer to my fight article for this welterweight showdown. Women’s Bantamweight bout: Jessica Andrade (-240) vs Marion Reneau (+220) Reneau by Decision (+350) 1u to win 3.5u Reneau +3.5 (-155) 1.55u to win 1u Contrary to very popular opinion, I think Reneau is the all-around better fighter here and favor her to pick up the upset win. Her striking is more technically sound and more crisp and her size advantage and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills make me think she will hold her own, should the fight hit the canvas. I think this is Reneau’s time, and tonight, I believe she will leave it all inside the Octagon. Will it be enough to defeat the Brazilian hometown favorite who is on a three-fight winning streak? I think it will. For my full write-up on this women’s 135-pound contest, please check out my fight article for the fight. Welterweight bout: Matt Dwyer (+315) vs William Macario (-350) Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-300) 1.5u to win .5u Macario -3.5 (-225) 1.12u to win .5u More or less, I expect this fight to play out similar to Dwyer’s Octagon debut against Albert Tumenov, to whom he lost via vicious first round knockout. Macario is a solid technical striker who possesses power, and I think he will find success in punching holes through Dwyer’s poor striking defense and ultimately secure the T/KO stoppage. However, I would not be completely surprised if Dwyer’s gameplan for this fight turns into “just survive” and he makes it to the final bell, giving the Brazilian a one-sided unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, similar to his victory over veteran Bobby Voelker. Lightweight bout: Ivan Jorge (-225) vs Josh Shockley (+205) Shockley by Decision (+340) .5u to win 1.7u Shockley +3.5 (+125) 1u to win 1.25u Contrary to another very popular opinion, I think this is a fight Shockley can win more often than not. Much like with the Reneau/Andrade fight, I was surprised to see not only all of my MMAOddsBreaker colleagues pick Jorge (and Andrade) to win in our staff picks, but as well as every staff member for every other MMA website I saw staff picks for. I seem to be the only one who favors these underdogs to outright win their fights, so by the end of the night, I’m either going to be looking like a genius or a big dummy. As long as Shockley doesn’t get his back taken and choked out in the first round, I like his chances of picking up the upset victory tonight. My reasoning for favoring Shockley to get his hand raised on foreign soil is that I think his advantages in size and conditioning will play a difference, if he does not succumb to Jorge’s rear naked choke in the first frame. I think Shockley has a very decent chance at winning this fight, even when giving his Brazilian counterpart the hometown edge. Regardless of the outcome to this match-up, I think the loser will be cut from the promotion and the winner will likely be someone worth fading in his next outing, as I don’t think either of these 155-pounders are UFC caliber athletes at this point in their careers. However, if Shockley somehow comes out and completely destroys Jorge, I may have to reconsider that. It’s been eight months since his Octagon debut, and it’s anybody’s guess how much the recently-turned 25-year old has improved since that outing. As for the 34-year old Jorge, he has been on an apparent decline, so I am not expecting any real improvements from him tonight. Unlike in his promotional debut against Jason Saggo, Shockley is the underdog in this fight. That means less pressure, as well as no Octagon jitters. Everybody seems to be counting this dog out, but I think he’s going to end up pulling off a surprise upset.
