One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 61 is a three-round welterweight bout between William Macario and Matt Dwyer. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Macario is a -280 favorite (bet $280 to win $100) while Dwyer is a +240 underdog (bet $100 to win $240). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Macario at -230 and Dwyer at +170, and the public is so far on Macario in the matchup. I like Macario as well and expect him to get the job done. Here’s why. Macario (7-2) made it to the finals of TUF Brazil 2, ultimately losing to Leo Santos on the show. The 23-year-old Brazilian is a wicked striker who uses a full arsenal of muay Thai attacks to hurt his opponent. He is 1-2 in the UFC with a decision win over a tough Bobby Voelker and two stoppage losses to Santos and Neil Magny, but even in his losses he did better than expected. He needs work on his cardio, wrestling, and submissions, but at only 23 years of age and constantly improving he can become a solid welterweight fighter, and he has a good chance to get back on track this weekend against Dwyer. Dwyer (7-2) is a Canadian welterweight prospect. The 25-year-old native of British Columbia is 7-2 in his career with all of his wins coming by knockout and both of his losses coming by knockout. He is a true be-or-be-killed fighter and while his style makes for exciting fights, it doesn’t make for a long career in the sport. In his UFC debut Dwyer was brutally knocked out by Albert Tumenov and I can see that happening here against Macario. He will have the size advantage as he stands 6’4″ tall, but Dwyer leaves his chin straight up in the air and if he doesn’t tuck it in this fight, he’s going lights out. Macario is one of my most confident picks on the entire card because he’s a very solid striker and Dwyer has shown absolutely horrible striking defence in his fights. Macario is going to light Dwyer up on the feet in this one and either win by decision or maybe even T/KO. The line is fairly high for a relatively unproven fighter, but based on the styles Macario really should win this fight handily, and he’s someone to use in your parlays this weekend.
