UFC Fight Night 60 Date: 02/14/15 Arena: 1STBank Center City: Broomfield CO Middleweight bout: Dan Kelly (+145) vs Patrick Walsh (-165) Fight Breakdown: The FOX Sports 1 preliminary card for UFC Fight Night 60 in Colorado will be featuring a middleweight bout between a pair of The Ultimate Fighter veterans in Australia’s Dan Kelly and The Ohio State University’s Patrick Walsh. Kelly is the betting underdog in this contest at +145 ($100 to win $145) and Walsh is the favorite to win at -165 ($165 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Dan Kelly (8-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) remained undefeated in his Octagon with a first round kimura submission victory over Luke Zachrich at UFC Fight Night 55 in his native Australia just a couple of months ago. Following the solid outing, he will be looking to extend his winning streak as he travels States-side for his first fight on American soil. Kelly is a nine-time Judo champion and four-time Olympian, having last competed in the 2012 Summer Olymics in London. He has a good submission game and works decent takedowns, using mostly his Judo skills and strength, which he has a lot of. The Australian transitions well on the mat, doing a good job of improving from position to position, all the while remaining very heavy on top. To compliment his offensive grappling, he has solid takedown defense, largely in part due to his strong hips and background in the sport of Judo. The TUF Nations veteran works a decent jab, an effective straight-left and some prosaic 1-2 combinations. He attempts sluggardly uppercuts and throws some second-rate leg kicks, preferring the inside-leg. Kelly has poor striking, though is he quite aggressive on the feet and likes to move forward, dictating cage control. He is slow and has a bad habit of plotting forward with his chin up. His striking defense is generally atrocious. The 37-year old has no footwork or head movement, and to make matters worse, he has a very questionable, especially considering his age. Another thing to note is that Kelly does not have good cardio and will likely be at a disadvantage in that department against Walsh in high-altitude Broomfield, CO. Patrick Walsh (5-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) made his promotional debut at The Ultimate Fighter Season 19 Finale seven months ago, where he picked up a unanimous decision victory over fellow TUF 19 cast-mate Daniel Spohn. It was a solid debut for the former Ohio State wrestler, who will be looking to make it 2-0 inside the Octagon on Saturday night. He is a talented grappler who works excellent takedowns, including a great double and a nice single. While on the mat, he remains very heavy in top position and is effective with his ground and pound. Walsh has a solid submission game, as well, owning a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. His submission defense is also good, though it is worth noting that he sometimes makes the mistake of leaving his neck out while going for takedowns, but it seems that the reason for that is because he is confident in his inability to be choked out, a la Benson Henderson and Brian Ebersole. The TUF 19 veteran is a former heavyweight whose cardio will be questionable in high-altitude Broomfield, CO on Saturday night, but I think it will be superior to the cardio of his 37-year old opponent Kelly. After picking up a win in the light heavyweight division in his Octagon debut, Walsh is dropping down to the middleweight division for this match-up. The 26-year old possesses heavy hands, but his striking defense is not very good. However, he has a good chin and isn’t afraid to take two to land one of his own, knowing his one likely does more damage than his opponents’ two. Walsh is a tough fighter who possesses a ton of heart and puts together some solid 1-2 combinations on the feet. On Valentine’s Day, he aims to make noise in the UFC’s 185-pound division. Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the only way Walsh could lose this fight is if he gasses before Kelly, and I really don’t see that happening. I don’t even think this fight will last enough to see If whether the altitude will play a factor for either of their cardio’s, as I think Walsh will most likely end this one early. I think he is going to start off aggressive and his hands will prove to be too heavy for Kelly to handle, ultimately crumbling to a T/KO defeat at the hands of Walsh. At -165, I see a world of value in the former Ohio State wrestler and love him for my three-way parlay, as I think he should be a -320 favorite. Gabe’s Call: Walsh by T/KO (punches, 4:39 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Walsh (-165) parlayed with Holloway (-360) and Thatch (-125) at +269 for 3.75u to win 10.1u
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