The opening main card bout at UFC Fight Night 60 is a three-round flyweight bout between Ray Borg and Chris Kelades. According to the current betting lines available at 5Dimes Sportsbook, Borg is a -450 favorite (bet $450 to win $100) while Kelades is a +330 underdog (bet $100 to win $330). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Borg at -380 and Kelades at +260 and the early betting action is on the favorite Borg. I agree with the line movement in Borg’s direction as I’m picking him to win this fight. Here’s why. Borg (7-1) is one of the top flyweight prospects in the UFC. The 21-year-old American is 1-1 in the UFC with a submission win over Shane Howell and a controversial split decision loss to Dustin Ortiz in his UFC debut. Borg is an exceptional grappler who is extremely adept at getting his opponents’ backs. He has five wins by rear-naked choke and he had numerous moments in the Ortiz fight where he took his back. On the feet he isn’t anything special, but he is improving rapidly and should soon be a competent striker. Borg has not found with last June and I expect to see more improvements out of him when he fights Kelades. It’s a good stylistic matchup for Borg as Kelades is likely to play with him on the mat, and thus it’s no surprise Borg is the favorite heading into the bout. Kelades (8-1) made his UFC debut last fall, decisioning Patrick Holohan in what was a big upset. The 33-year-old Canadian is a teammate of UFC lightweight TJ Grant and he took the fight with Holohan on short notice after Grant talked to UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby, and he looked good in the fight. He showed strong wrestling and a dominant top game and his cardio was on point despite the short notice. He didn’t show much striking in the Holohan fight, but training with Grant has probably helped his striking reach at least an acceptable level. Having said that, Kelades is taking on a hot-shot prospect here in Borg who is a better grappler and wrestler than Holohan and who doesn’t have the same cardio issues. Kelades is going to look to grind Borg out, but going up against such a dangerous submission specialist like Borg, this appears to be a very tough stylistic matchup for Kelades and one that he’s likely to lose, and thus he’s a big underdog for a reason. Kelades performed better than expected in his UFC debut against Holohan, but Borg is a different beast. I believe Borg is one of the top prospects in the sport in any weight class, and I think he will be fighting for the flyweight title within the next two years. Kelades is a solid fighter, but Borg is a highlight-reel finisher and I expect him to look extremely impressive once again in a fight that clearly favors him stylistically. Look for Borg to get this fight to the mat and get a rear-naked choke to add another scalp to his growing resume. At the current line, I believe Borg is a very good parlay key next weekend.
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