One of the televised prelims at UFC 183 is a three-round middleweight bout between Derek Brunson and Ed Herman. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Brunson is a -550 favorite (bet $550 to win $100) while Herman is a +425 underdog (bet $100 to win $425). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Brunson at -475 and Herman at +325 and the public is backing Brunson. I agree with Brunson being a big favorite here and I’m picking him to win the fight. Here’s why. Brunson (12-3) is 3-1 in the UFC with wins over Chris Leben, Lorenz Larkin and Brian Houston and a loss to Yoel Romero. The 31-year-old American is a very good wrestler and his success in the UFC has come from his ability to take his opponents down to the mat and control them there. He was even taking down the Olympic wrestler Romero with ease before gassing late and getting knocked out. And that’s been his main problem so far in his career. In two of his three losses he has been knocked out by Romero and Jacare Souza, and after breaking his jaw in the Romero fight you have to wonder if that will make his chin even worse. Having said that, Brunson has improved his striking so he can definitely hang in on there on the feet against guys who lack knockout power. He has a great high kick that he throws and even though Herman hasn’t been knocked out before, it’s possible Brunson could catch him and put him out. But more likely he will look to use his wrestling to win a decision, and against a guy like Herman who doesn’t have the best wrestling it’s very possible he does that. Herman (22-10, 1 NC) was on TUF season 3 and has since gone on to post a 9-6, 1 NC with wins over the likes of Rafael Natal, Trevor Smith and Kyle Noke, among others. The 34-year-old is a terrific grinder and in general just a very tough guy. He has never been knocked out to the head (aside from an injury TKO at UFC 102) and overall his chin is one of the best in the division. His striking isn’t great, but he does have a good clinch game and he has some very nice dirty boxing from the plum, and he has solid power too (five career T/KO wins). His wrestling is decent, and if he can get his fights to the ground he can implement his excellent ground game (13 career submission wins). However he has been taken down in his losses and going up against a solid wrestler like Brunson, it’s likely that’s what is going to happen here, and that’s why you see Herman such a big dog in this spot. Herman is a scrappy vet and you can never count him out entirely but Brunson has been nothing but impressive in his recent performances and I expect him to keep the win streak rolling with another win here. I think Brunson is going to be able to get Herman on the ground and get in top position and grind his way to a decision victory. The line is very high at , so proceed with caution if you’re going to bet on Brunson at this price, but this is a fight he should win and I would be pretty surprised if Herman was able to score the upset.
