One of the televised prelims at UFC 183 is a three-round women’s bantamweight bout between Sara McMann and Miesha Tate. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, McMann is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100) while Tate is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up McMann at -175 with the original comeback on Tate at +135 and the betting public is backing McMann so far. I like McMann to pick up the win here and agree with her being the favorite. Here’s why. McMann (8-1) is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Sheila Gaff and Lauren Murphy and a loss to Ronda Rousey. The 34-year-old American won a silver medal in the Olympics in freestyle wrestling and she has transferred that skill well into MMA as she’s been dominant with her takedowns. She is able to land powerful double leg takedowns on her opponent, get them to the mat, and then control them there for her wins. She is not that active with strikes and submission attempts while on the ground, but she has done enough to win all her fights so far except for the one against Rousey where she was just outclassed. Her striking isn’t great but she has serviceable boxing and is improving in that regard. Her success in this bout against Tate will reside in her ability to implement her wrestling. Tate is a solid wrestler in her own right, but McMann is superior in that regard and if she can score the takedowns like I think she can, she should win this fight. Tate (15-5) is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over Rin Nakai and Liz Carmouche and losses to Rousey and Cat Zingano. The 28-year-old American is a very scrappy fighter but she is a primarily a grappler. She has solid wrestling skills and her ground game from both the top and bottom is fairly impressive. She is very good at going for submissions from anywhere and has solid overall conditioning, which allows her to be constantly throwing sub attempts and strikes until the end of the fight. Her striking is quite poor, although to be fair to Tate her stand-up game is improving. She does have a very solid chin though, and can take punishment that most other fighters in the division can’t handle. Tate has relied on her heart and will to win most of her fights, but I’m not sure if that will be enough going up against such a superior athlete in McMann. I don’t think Tate has a direct path to victory here outside of McMann being inactive from the top (like the Murphy fight) and Tate offering more from the bottom, so I think it makes sense she is the underdog in this spot. Overall, I think Tate is on a the beginnings of a severe decline and I feel McMann is getting her at the right time. I expect McMann to use her wrestling and get this fight to the ground and beat Tate up, and even if she can’t and the fight stays on the feet I think McMann is the better striker and can win the stand-up exchanges. Having said that, I don’t see any value in the current line because of the very real possibility of a judges’ decision going the wrong way, so I’ll hold off on a bet for now. But if the line drops back down to near the opener, I think it could have some value.
