One of the Fight Pass prelims at UFC 183 is a three-round middleweight bout between Thiago Santos and Andy Enz. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Santos is a -170 favorite (bet $170 to win $100) while Enz is a +155 underdog (bet $100 to win $155). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Enz at -125 and Santos at -115 and the public is on Santos so far, flipping the line. I lean towards Santos in this one to pick up the W. Here’s why. Santos (9-3) was a competitor on TUF Brazil 2 and has gone on to post a 1-2 record in the UFC with a win over Ronny Markes and losses to Cezar Ferreira and Uriah Hall. The 31-year-old Brazilian is a dangerous striker who has compiled five career T/KO wins. He has very good kicks that he throws to his opponents’ body and legs and he even made the fight with Hall competitive despite being a massive underdog heading into it. But while he is a talented striker, his wrestling and ground game are quite poor, and that’s how he lost his fight against Ferreira in his UFC debut. So if he fights a better wrestler he could be in trouble. Fortunately for Santos in this spot he is fighting a poor wrestler in Enz and if he is able to keep this fight on the feet, he should have no trouble outstriking his opponent en route to a decision win. Enz (7-2) was a competitor on TUF 17, losing to Hall in the house and since then he has gone 0-2 in the UFC with losses to Marcelo Guimaraes and Clint Hester. Enz is a very tough guy but he offers very little in the standup department and is overall one of the worst strikers in the division. He does have a solid ground game (five career submission wins), but he lacks the wrestling needed to take UFC-caliber opponents down with consistency. Enz can win this fight against Santos if he can survive the early goings on the feet and outgrapple his opponent in the later rounds, but that won’t be an easy feat to achieve and that’s why the betting public has made him the underdog. I think Enz is one of the worst fighters on the entire UFC roster and the only reason he is still under contract is because he is a tough dude who comes to fight. Santos, in my opinion, has been underrated for a while. He isn’t great, but he’s not bad either. I think he should be able to keep this fight standing for the most part and he has the better striking so I think he’ll be able to outstrike Enz en route to a decision victory. I’m still on the fence about a bet because this is probably going to be a close fight that gets left in the judges’ hands, but I definitely lean Santos to emerge as the winner.
