Next Saturday, the Octagon travels across the Atlantic giving another one of its European stars a chance to shine. UFC on FOX 14 will be the first card shown on the network that isn’t held in the US, and given the rise of Alexander Gustafsson over the past couple years there are few fighters more equipped to headline it. Of course, Gustafsson doesn’t have a free pass in the main event. His opponent is perhaps the hardest-hitting fighter in the entire light heavyweight division, Anthony Johnson. The reinvigorated ‘Rumble’ has shown massive improvements in his cardio, takedown defense, and his striking is more dangerous than ever since sparing himself the massive weight cuts of days past. The four-fight main card begins at 8pm EST (2am local time in Stockholm), but there are eight preliminary bouts before that goes live, and they actually take place at a somewhat reasonable time for the Swedes in attendance to enjoy. Interestingly, Nico Musoke is the only Swede featured on the preliminary card, but there are plenty of fighters from all over Europe throughout. At a glance, Musoke taking on Albert Tumenov is the most interesting prelim bout, although prospect Mirsad Bektic making his second UFC appearance is also worth noting. Bowling ball heavyweight Konstantin Erokhin also makes his UFC debut against Viktor Pesta. All of this, plus Nikita Krlyov and Andy Ogle fights? Sign me up. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the betting lines for all eight UFC on FOX 14 preliminary fights today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (FOX, 8pm ET) Alexander Gustafsson -190 Anthony Johnson +150 Gegard Mousasi -350 Dan Henderson +250 Phil Davis -215 Ryan Bader +165 Akira Corassani -140 Sam Sicilia +100 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 5pm ET) Albert Tumenov -135 Nico Musoke -105 Kenny Robertson -125 Sultan Aliev -115 Andy Ogle -125 Makwan Amirkhani -115 Nikita Krylov -120 Stanislav Nedkov -120 Mairbek Taisumov -475 Anthony Christodoulou +325 Konstantin Erokhin -260 Viktor Pesta +180 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 4pm ET) Mirsad Bektic -350 Paul Redmond +250 Chris Beal -230 Neil Seery +170 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: The top of this prelim card is filled with close matches, and I’m interested to see the direction the public takes on them because I’m torn on more than one. Tumenov remains the recent Russian signing who I believe has the highest ceiling in the UFC, but this isn’t an easy match for him. We’ve seen that Musoke isn’t above putting on a dud of a fight if it means he pulls out the victory, and as one of the bigger welterweights he’s quite capable of doing that by grinding things out against the fence. I’d like to think that Tumenov is a good enough striker with good enough movement to avoid the grappling of Musoke, but I’m really not that confident in it. I still favor the Russian, but unless some holes in Musoke’s game really open up on a deeper look at this fight, I’m not prepared to bet it. Sultan Aliev looks like he has a really impressive record (and by all accounts he should be undefeated), but his wins are over largely poor competition, and he’s not great offensively. Still, he’s a solid wrestler and he should have a significant size advantage over Kenny Robertson. Whether he can parlay that into controlling the majority of the fight remains to be seen, but I think he ends up in top position when this does hit the mat, and while Robertson is a dangerous grappler, that mostly comes from top position. I lean to Aliev to pick up a decision, but if Robertson finds himself in top position at any point here, he’s extremely dangerous to finish. Andy Ogle doesn’t get a lot of respect from bettors, but his grappling ability is pretty decent — he survived longer than anyone expected against Charles Oliveira, and had a good deal of success on the mat against Maxi Blanco — and he’s not at a severe disadvantage in the stand up here as he has been in the past. I actually think he can outwork the debuting Amirkhani in this fight, and if the line moves the way I think it will, he could be had at a decent price. Nikita Krylov still can’t wrestle and still can’t grapple. Stanislav Nedkov isn’t good at a lot of things, but he can wrestle, and he has to be a better grappler than Krylov once he gets it down, right? I think Nedkov is either able to get multiple takedowns and ride those to a decision, or just turn the first takedown into a submission. Either way, if I can get a far better wrestler at a dog price, I’m taking it. Anthony Christodoulou has gone 12-1 since dropping his first three career fights, but his level of competition is going to increase drastically when he faces Mairbek Taisumov, and I just don’t think he striking or wrestling skills are enough to overcome what the Chechen brings to the cage. Inexperienced heavyweights usually beg for a dog-or-pass approach to betting, and I don’t think this fight is any different. Konstantin Erokhin hits hard, but at 33 I’m curious how much he can actually develop from his current form. He also has some big physical disadvantages being just 5’11”, especially against an opponent who is 6’4″ and nearly ten years younger. Pesta was competitive with a talented striker in Ruslan Magomedov, and his grappling is his best asset and Erokhin’s weakest, I think he can have success as long as this stays on the feet. If the price gets over +150, I have no problem taking a small chance on him. Paul Redmond can win this bout if Mirsad Bektic gets in a leglock battle with him, and in no other way. Bektic is the cleaner, more powerful striker, a far better wrestler, and more effective with his grappling aside from the aforementioned caveat. I’m extremely high on Bektic’s potential, and I think he handles Redmond on short notice here. Given how much bigger Beal was than Tateki Matsuda in his last fight, I’m surprised he’s dropping to 125, but if he makes the cut without any ill effects, he should be able to dominate Seery in the wrestling department here. Beal’s striking looks good at times and mediocre at others, so he’d probably be wise to take this to the ground, where Seery is far less dangerous. If he does that, I think he takes home a decision. If it stays on the feet, it will be very competitive.
