The main event of UFC Fight Night 59 is a five-round featherweight bout between Conor McGregor and Dennis Siver. According to the current betting lines available at 5Dimes Sportsbook, McGregor is a -1200 favorite (bet $1200 to win $100) while Siver is a +700 underdog (bet $100 to win $700). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up McGregor at -600 and Siver at -400, and the betting public steamed the line way up. It’s for good reason, though, as McGregor is as surefire a pick as any in the sport to win this fight. Here’s why. McGregor (16-2) is quickly emerging as one of the top featherweight contenders in the UFC. The 26-year-old Irishman is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Dustin Poirier, Diego Brandao, Max Holloway and Marcus Brimage and overall is riding a 12-fight win streak dating back to 2010. McGregor has huge knockout power and overall has 14 T/KO wins. His hands are his main weapon, but in recent fights he has mixed in a nice kicking game. He also has underrated wrestling and a good chin. His lone two career losses came by submission, so he might have some issues on the mat, but with improved takedown defence it will be hard for his opponents to get him there. Against Siver, McGregor will be looking to earn a statement victory to propel him to a title shot. It’s a good matchup for McGregor as he is the bigger, stronger, and faster fighter with more knockout power, and that’s why you see the line as inflated as it is. Siver (22-9, 1 NC) is a long-time veteran of the UFC. The 35-year-old German is 11-6, 1 NC in the UFC including a 3-1, 1 NC record at featherweight with wins in the division over Charles Rosa, Nam Phan, and Diego Nunes and a No Contest to Manny Gamburyan, with his lone loss in the division coming to Cub Swanson. Siver is a very good technical striker, especially with regards to kicks. He doesn’t have that much power (five career T/KO wins) but he makes up for it with good technique. He also has very underrated wrestling and an underrated submission game, with nine career submission victories under his belt. The problem with Siver is that he has a weak chin and his cardio at 145lbs is not good due to a heavy weight cut. He is still one of the best fighters in the division for sure, but fighting a bigger fighter like McGregor who packs massive power in his strikes, this looks like a bad matchup for the German and that’s why he enters the fight as a dog. Siver is a good fighter but McGregor holds too many advantages over him. We have seen Siver rocked many times in his UFC career and now that he’s getting up there in age, it’s not like his chin is getting better. Look for McGregor to smash Siver early in this fight with punches to get a huge stoppage win in Boston that will earn him the next title shot against UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. I don’t see much value in the McGregor moneyline at -1200 but I do like the UNDER 1.5 rounds prop here at -165, and I like it a lot as I fully expect McGregor to put Siver away in less than seven-and-a-half minutes.
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