I’ve gone through all of the UFC 182 prop bets available at Several Bookmakers and have selected five which I believe have a good chance of winning tonight. Here are the five: Hector Lombard wins by T/KO (-119) The opening bout of the main caard sees Hector Lombard at welterweight for a third time going up against The Ultimate Fighter season two alum Josh Burkman. Lombard is 2-0 at welterweight and has looked great since dropping down to the weight class. Burkman has looked solid overall in the World Series of Fighting, but there is a reason he is such a massive underdog against Lombard. I really think Lombard becomes the first man to stop Burkman with strikes this weekend, and the finish probably comes pretty early on. Instead of laying a huge price on the Lombard moneyline, I see more value in the Lombard by T/KO prop at -119 for a bet, although in saying that it wouldn’t totally shock me if Lombard won a decision. Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Louis Gaudinot UNDER 2.5 rounds (-105) Flyweight contender Kyoji Horiguchi looks to move to 4-0 in the UFC when he takes on Louis Gaudinot in a main card bout, and I think he’ll be successful. I think Horiguchi is going to hurt Gaudinot badly, and I think he gets the finish in the fight. I’m surprised the total for this fight is 2.5 rounds and not 1.5 rounds, so I definitely see value in the under considering the total is available at a Pick ’em price of -105 in a fight where there’s most likely going to end in a first-round stoppage. Shawn Jordan wins by T/KO (-125) In a heavyweight bout on the prelims, Shawn Jordan takes on UFC debutant Jarred Cannonier. I’ve been thinking about this fight all week and while I did originally lean Cannonier at +200, I’m now thinking Jordan is the side after watching the weigh ins and seeing him come in with a 20lb weight advantage. As much as I have been impressed by the tape on Cannonier, Jordan has tons of UFC experience and he hits really, really hard, and I think he’s probably going to score a knockout in this one. At -125, there’s more value on the Jordan wins by T/KO prop than there is on the Jordan moneyline. Cody Garbrandt wins by T/KO (+425) Marcus Brimage returns to the Octagon when he welcomes UFC newcomer Cody Garbrandt in a bantamweight affair. I have been nothing but impressed with Brimage since he dropped down to 135lbs, but Garbrandt is a legit prospect and everything I’ve seen on him shows this guy is good. Really good. He has good boxing, big-time power, and I feel like he has a very good chance to knock Brimage out. At +425, I think there’s value for a small play on the Garbrandt wins by T/KO prop. Mats Nilsson vs. Omari Akhmedov doesn’t go three-round distance (-195) The first fight of the prelims sees Mats Nilsson taking on Omari Akhmedov, and it’s a fight that I just can’t see making it the full three rounds. Both these guys are finishers, and both of them having the capabilities of finishing one another. If Nilsson pulls off the upset, it’s likely going to be by submission, and if Akhmedov wins, he’ll likely do so by T/KO. So instead of betting the moneyline on either guy, take the prop on the fight not going the distance at -195, which I think is a safer play and still fairly rewarding.
