The co-main event of UFC 182 is a three-round lightweight bout between Donald Cerrone and Myles Jury. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Cerrone is a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100) while Jury is a +170 underdog (bet $100 to win $170). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Cerrone at -150 and Jury at +110, and the early betting action is on the favorite Cerrone. This is a tricky fight to call, but I do slightly lean towards Cerrone and believe he deserve to be favored. Here’s why. Cerrone (25-6, 1 NC) is one of the top-five lightweight fighters in the sport. The 31-year-old American is one of the busiest fighters in the UFC and since coming over to the Octagon from the WEC back in 2011, he has compiled a 12-3 record with wins over the likes of Eddie Alvarez, Jim Miller, Edson Barboza, Adriano Martins, Evan Dunham, Charles Oliveira, Dennis Siver, Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens and losses to Nate Diaz, Rafael dos Anjos and UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. Cerrone is extremely dangerous both standing and on the ground, but it’s his striking that is his best attribute. He is one of the most devastating strikers in the division, capable of ending fights with his knees, kicks, and punches, and he has the cardio to keep up his vicious onslaught for 15 or 25 full minutes. He also has a tremendous chin and has never been knocked out due to head strikes in his career, although Pettis did stop him to the body with a kick. His submission game is also extremely lethal, and he’s one of those fighters who, if he knocks you down to the mat, can take your back in a split second and choke you out. Aside from his knockout power and submission skills, he also has very underrated wrestling, both offensively and defensively. In short, he’s a tank, and in 2014 he was one of the best fighters in the sport, going 4-0 with three stoppages over elite fighters. Cerrone enters this bout against Jury on a five-fight win streak and he has all the momentum on his side. However, as good as he is, Cerrone is prone to lapses at times, and if he takes Jury lightly this could be an upset spot. Still, with the way he’s been fighting over the past year, it’s hard to bet against Cerrone right now and sure enough he is a big favorite in this fight, and it’s justified as far as I’m concerned. Jury (15-0) is one of the top-10 lightweights in the UFC and with a win over Cerrone could be one fight away from getting a title shot. The 26-year-old American starred on TUF 15 and while he lost a decision to Al Iaquinta on the show, he has since improved his game at a rapid rate and is 10 times the fighter now then he was then. He is an extremely dangerous and well-rounded fighter who is the epitome of the modern MMA fighter. He has terrific standup, excellent submissions, and underrated wrestling. His cardio is great too and he has a good chin. His footwork and movement are also terrific. In short, he’s one of the best lightweight fighters in the world and a real threat to take home the gold. Jury is 6-0 in the UFC with wins over Takanori Gomi, Diego Sanchez, Mike Ricci, Ramsey Nijem, Michael Johnson and Chris Saunders. He has dominated all of his fights save for his matchup with Ricci, which was surprisingly competitive. But other than that, he has looked sensational. There’s no doubt Cerrone is a big step up for Jury, but it’s a winnable fight for Jury. He has the knockout power to hurt Cerrone on the feet, and he also has the submission ability needed to lock in a choke if he gets the chance. He could also use his underrated wrestling in a pinch if need be. But until he proves he can beat someone of Cerrone’s caliber, it’s hard to favor Jury in a spot like this, so while he is certainly a live dog, it makes sense that he is the underdog heading into the bout, because Jury beating Cerrone would truly be an upset, albeit one that is not as farfetched as the line might indicate. With the way Cerrone has been fighting the last year, it’s very hard to pick against him right now. He is just really on his game and incredibly dangerous in all facets of the fight. However, the same can be said of Jury, who is extremely well-rounded himself and still improving. I think what this fight comes down to is how focused Cerrone is. When he’s on, he’s one of the best lightweights in the world. When he’s off, though, he can be beaten. So if you’re betting on Cerrone here, you’re banking on him being in a good place mentally, and while that seems to be the case, it’s always a risk when backing Cerrone. Jury, on the other hand, has nothing to lose. Most are expecting him to lose this fight, and when a guy is as talented and dangerous as he is, that’s a good position to be in. It would not surprise me to see Jury find a way to win the fight, but all the momentum is on Cerrone’s side right now and I can’t pick against him, so I’ll take Cerrone in what should be one of the best fights on the card. But I wouldn’t bet him at -200. For me, this is the perfect fight to sit back, watch, and enjoy, because it should be a really good one.
