One of the main card bouts at UFC 182 is a three-round flyweight contest between Kyoji Horiguchi and Louis Gaudinot. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Horiguchi is a -675 favorite (bet $675 to win $100) while Gaudinot is a +475 underdog (bet $100 to win $475). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Horiguchi at -600 and Gaudinot at +400, and the public has taken the line on Horiguchi to an even higher number. I agree with the line on Horiguchi as I see him winning this fight in impressive fashion. Here’s why. Horiguchi (14-1) is one of the top prospects at 125lbs and could soon emerge as a bonafide contender. The 24-year-old native of Japan is 3-0 in the UFC so far with wins over Dustin Pague, Darrell Montague and Jon Delos Reyes and overall is riding an eight-fight win streak. He is incredibly fast for flyweight, but what sets Horiguchi apart is his power. He has nine T/KO wins, an unheard of knockout rate for a 125-er, and as his technique gets better as he gets older I expect those numbers to increase even higher. He has powerful kicks to the body and he has some really nasty ground and pound too. His grappling isn’t great, but he is improving in that regard. But with his out-of-this-world striking, he can absolutely be a contender, and a win over a tough vet like Gaudinot would be huge for him. Gaudinot (6-3, 1 NC) was a member of The Ultimate Fighter season 14 and has since gone on to post a 1-2, 1 NC record in the UFC with a win over John Lineker, losses to Johnny Bedford and Tim Elliott and a No Contest to Phil Harris. The 30-year-old American is a solid striker who has a good chin and who can stand and trade with the best of them, but the best attribute he’s shown so far in the UFC is his submission prowess, specifically his guillotine, which he used to submit both Lineker and Harris (although the latter was changed to a NC after Gaudinot tested positive for a banned substance). However, keep in mind that in the Lineker fight he got beat up badly before landing the submission late in the second, and he also took vicious beatings against Bedford and Elliott, who each took him down and pounded him on the mat. If he’s put on his back Gaudinot doesn’t offer much, and perhaps his best chance of defeating Horiguchi will be to lock in a submission during a transition or scramble. That’s not a very likely path to victory, though, and it’s why he’s such a big dog at UFC 182. I think this is one of the easier fights on the entire card to pick. Gaudinot is a solid veteran and deserves his spot on the UFC roster, but Horiguchi is the top prospect in the division, incredibly dangerous, and ever improving. I think the UFC put Horiguchi on this pay-per-view so he can break out to a huge audience with an emphatic win, and I think that’s exactly what happens. Whether it’s by knockout or submission, I think Horiguchi dominates this fight from bell to bell and gets his hand raised. The line is high for a reason, but Horiguchi should be a safe parlay selection, although there isn’t much value at this point. For the best bet, look for the UNDER 2.5 rounds total at a Pick ’em — that’s a good, fair price for a fight that is very likely to see a finish.
