UFC Fight Night 58 December 20, 2014 Bantamweight Matchup: Renan Barao vs Mitch Gagnon By @fightnomics Big Picture: Before the evening’s main event from Brazil, the biggest favorite on the card will take to the Octagon for his first three-round fight in years. Dana White’s former pound-for-pound best, and Rogan’s favorite “monster” Renan Barao will get a tune up fight on his home turf before a potential rematch with the man who took his belt, TJ Dillashaw. Some are scratching their heads at the matchmaking, and the long odds reflect it, but Mitch Gagnon has still assembled a four-fight win streak in the Bantamweight division, which cannot be ignored. The #1 ranked Barao opened as a huge favorite and has since risen slightly to -750, with the underdog #14 Gagnon at +525. These are extreme odds, and that could be a trap for many looking to parlay heavy favorites, so let’s see what the statline says. Summary Stats:
To see more Uber Tales of the Tape for this UFC fight card, check out MMA Oddsbreaker Premium.
Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape isn’t much help here. Barao is younger and has a small but significant reach advantage, but Gagnon will come out Southpaw. Overall it’s a wash, but it’s important to note that the long-time veteran Barao is still in his physical prime, while the much less experienced Gagnon is actually older. Striking Matchup: The striking metrics may look back and forth, but context is extremely important when analyzing two fighters who have had such different strength of opponents. Barao has spent twice as many minutes fighting in title fights as Gagnon has spent competing in the UFC altogether. So Barao’s striking metrics have been built against top notch competition, while the sample size on Gagnon is limited, and even his opponents have limited UFC experience. In fact, after Gagnon lost his debut to Bryan Caraway, he amassed his four-fight win streak entirely against fighters with losing UFC records. That said, Gagnon’s offensive striking stats have been decent in his performances so far, while his defense has been above average. And he’ll need that against Renan Barao, whose diverse striking attacks have finished some of the UFC’s best and brightest, including challengers Urijah Faber and Eddie Wineland. Against TJ Dillashaw, Renan Barao showed that he is mortal and beatable, but it took a sustained beating from a surprisingly improved striking attack out of Team Alpha Male’s first UFC champion to do it. So despite the close statline, the difference in pedigree and competition still has us leaning towards Barao getting the better of the striking exchanges. Barao has also spent the vast majority of his fight time (82%) on his feet, confirming his comfort in striking. Meanwhile, Gagnon has spent only half of his fight time standing, and much of that was in the clinch, suggesting he’s less comfortable slinging leather. Once the fight starts, Barao will be the one wanting to stand and trade, and he will be the more effective one at doing so. Grappling Matchup: So Gagnon may be looking to get this fight to the ground. Historically, his takedowns have come frequently, but with average success. He has shown good takedown defense, but has been mixed in his overall ground control. The real stat that pops is Gagnon’s submission attempt rate, which is very high, and has been the key to his finishing three of four UFC opponents by submission. Prior to the UFC, every one of Gagnon’s wins came by submission, which is impressive since it’s claimed he only has a purple belt in BJJ. Gagnon is actually #2 all-time in the UFC for the rate at which he attempts submission behind only TJ Waldburger, and ahead of guys named Struve, Lauzon, and Mir. It’s clear that Gagnon succeeds by his submission game. But let’s compare that to Renan Barao, who boasts a BJJ black belt and has also won by submission more than any other method. Barao has as many career submission victories has Gagnon has career fights. Barao’s grappling statline is perhaps most impressive in his takedown defense, which places him as the current UFC record holder. Getting him to the mat has proven too difficult for many strong wrestlers. So even if Gagnon wants to turn this into a submission contest, he’s going to have a lot of trouble getting the fight into favorable position. The combination of Barao’s takedown defense and his BJJ experience should the fight go to the ground make for a tough time ahead for Gagnon, and a near impossible path to a submission finish. If, however, Gagnon is relentless with his takedown attempts, he could steal a round and/or simply delay the inevitable striking mismatch. Reed’s Pick: Barao to Win (Click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: There’s no reason to believe that Barao will get put on the ground and submitted, so he should run away with the striking exchanges at some point. But while he’s likely to win, the biggest question will be how and when. Using him in parlays isn’t even adding much value at this point, so taking Barao’s side can only be used for fun multi-parlays – and even then not for much longer. As a fighter approaches ten-to-one odds, most value is lost even if they are the far superior fighter. A hand break on the first punch, and hamstring tear on a kick, or just the “puncher’s chance” give any UFC caliber underdog approximately a 10% chance to win. So obviously be careful in this situation with such a steep price and look for angles elsewhere. The totals limit of 1.5 rounds is tight, probably due to the perceived mismatch. With the Over -134 and the +115, the market is torn as to whether this will end in the first two rounds. And that’s a close call. Gagnon hasn’t taken much damage in his career, and he should prove durable. He’s also better at defense on his feet than offense. While Barao should control the striking exchanges and do more damage, it may take a while for him to find an opening for a finish, and it could be stalled by Gagnon’s attempts to get this fight to the ground. Scoring a knockout at Bantamweight isn’t all that common, so the lean here is towards the over, even though Barao still could get the finish. The conclusion here is that this fight is a very risky fight to play given the prices involved, the tight total, and the lack of a clear finish method. Consider the Over, but also a separate parlay involving Barao Inside the Distance, and then hope you hit both angles. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis, or on Facebook, if you prefer.