UFC on FOX 13 Date: December 13, 2014 Arena: US Airways Center City: Phoenix, AZ The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to FOX this Saturday (Dec. 13, 2014) with UFC on FOX 13: dos Santos vs Miocic. The action gets going live on FOX at 8pm ET, with preliminary scraps beginning at 5pm ET on FOX Sports 1 and 3:30pm ET on UFC Fight Pass before that. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC on FOX 13 in Phoenix are: Heavyweight bout: Junior dos Santos (-390) vs Stipe Miocic (+348) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Miocic is a live dog in this match-up and am picking him to edge out a decision on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t really see him finishing dos Santos, so I think a decision is the likely way he will get his hand raised in this match-up, if he indeed does walk away with the win. I think there is value in the Croatian at the current betting line of +348, however, I think the total of Over 2.5 rounds at +165 offers more value, even though it is a lower line. I think it offers more value because even if Miocic loses, there is a very good chance the fight will still go over the two and a half round mark. If dos Santos wins this fight, which the betting lines suggest he likely will, then it is expected he will do so by knockout. However, while I personally do think that there is a good chance he will knock Miocic out, I think there is almost as good of a chance that he will win the fight on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t think Miocic is a fighter who is easy to put away, as long as he is in fighting shape. His only loss, and TKO loss at that, came at the hands of Stefan Struve, and the reason for that is because his cardio was not close to where it needed to be for that fight. He quickly gassed and the Dutchman put the stamp on him. If he is fully prepared for 25 minutes of action, I don’t think dos Santos will knock him out nearly as easily as he has previous opponents. Also, if he does score the knockout, there is a good chance it will come after the two and a half round mark. In conclusion, I think the ‘Over’ is the safest play here, and the one that offers most value. Gabe’s Call: Miocic by Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (+165) 2u to win 3.3u Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz (+220) vs Rafael dos Anjos (-240) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the Brazilian’s best route to victory is to score takedowns and use his wrestling to edge out rounds, which is a realistic possibility. However, I think the majority of the bout will take place on the feet, where I give the advantage to Diaz due to his superior boxing and advantages in size and reach. I think this is going to be a close fight and do not agree with the current betting odds. I think they should be closer to a coin-flip, with Diaz being a slight favorite. I believe the value here is with Diaz and he is a true live dog in this spot. Gabe’s Call: Diaz by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Nate Diaz (+220) 2u to win 4.4u Women’s Strawweight bout: Claudia Gadelha (-245) vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+225) Gabe’s Thoughts: This match-up between two undefeated ladies 115 pounders will determine who faces the winner of the main event of the evening, which will be a five round battle between Claudia Esperza and Rose Namajunas that will determine the inaugral UFC women’s strawweight champion. I expect Gadelha vs Jedrzejczyk to be a closely contested and entertaining bout that likely plays out for all three rounds of action for a judges’ decision, with both ladies leaving it all in the cage. To put it simply, I don’t agree with the current betting odds for this contest, as I think this fight will be a lot closer than they suggest. In fact, I lean with the underdog Jedrzejczyk to get her hand raised, most likely via decision, but a finish would not surprise me. I feel the betting odds for this scrap should be at a near coin-flip, with Jedrzejczyk being the slight favorite, so at the current betting price of +225, I definitely like her for a play, as I think she is a very live dog making her second trip to the Octagon. Gabe’s Call: Jedrzejczyk by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+225) 2u to win 4.5u Flyweight bout: John Moraga (-475) vs Willie Gates (+420) Gabe’s Thoughts: Moraga will have the hometown advantage entering this bout, as well as a wrestling advantage. Considering Gates is taking this fight on short notice, Moraga will likely have an edge in cardio, too. On the feet, I think they will cancel each other out, so if Gates is able to keep the fight there for two out of three rounds, I think he will have a chance of upsetting the hometown favorite when the fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. That said, I would not be surprised to see a finish come in this fight by either 125 pounder. I lean with Moraga to pick up the win here, but think the value is with the promotional newcomer, who will be enjoying a height and reach advantage heading into this short notice match-up. Gabe’s Call: Moraga by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Willie Gates (+420) 1u to win 4.2u
