The main event of UFC on FOX 13 is a five-round heavyweight bout between Junior dos Santos and Stipe Miocic. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, JDS is a -400 favorite (bet $400 to win $100) while Miocic is a +325 underdog (bet $100 to win $325). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up JDS at -270 and Miocic at +190, and the bettors so far like the favorite JDS in the matchup. I agree JDS should be favored in this fight, but the odds seem steep at this point, and I’m wondering now if there’s value on the dog Miocic. Here’s why. JDS (16-3) is the former UFC heavyweight champion. The 30-year-old Brazilian holds a 10-2 record in the Octagon with wins over Cain Velasquez, Mark Hunt, Frank Mir, Shane Carwin, Roy Nelson, Gabriel Gonzaga, Mirko Cro Cop, Stefan Struve and Fabricio Werdum, among others, with his only two losses coming to the champ Velasquez. JDS is an elite striker with extreme knockout power in all of his limbs. He has 12 career wins by T/KO, including seven in the UFC. He is also a BJJ black belt on the ground, although he hasn’t used his BJJ in his UFC career. As for wrestling, he has solid takedown defence but can be taken down by elite wrestlers. Overall JDS is one of the best in the world bar none, but he’s coming into this fight off of a long layoff and off of a beatdown by Velasquez at UFC 166. There is no telling how he will look when he comes back, but if he returns to the form he once had, he should be able to take Miocic out in devastating fashion. But that’s a big if. Miocic (12-1) is emerging as one of the elite heavyweights in UFC. The 32-year-old American is 6-1 in the UFC with wins over Fabio Maldonado, Roy Nelson, and Gabriel Gonzaga, among others, with his lone loss coming to Stefan Struve by TKO. Miocic is a well-rounded heavyweight with good boxing, good wrestling, and good conditioning. He is just a very solid fighter and looks better and better with each passing fight. However, JDS represents by far the toughest opponent of his career to date. If Miocic can take advantage of the fact JDS is coming in off of a long injury layoff, he could come away with the biggest win of his career. It won’t be easy, though, as JDS has a great chin and so the chances of a Miocic stoppage are slim, but perhaps if he can land volume he can take this fight into the deep waters and get the finish late, or win a decision. It will be good to see where Miocic fits in the division depending on how he looks in this fight, but odds are he loses to the former champ and that’s why he’s the underdog. I can see this fight going two ways. Either JDS returns to form and knocks Miocic out cold early in the fight, or JDS looks like he’s declined since the last beatdown by Velasquez and gets pummelled by Miocic for five rounds or less. It’s possible that JDS really isn’t the same guy anymore and that Miocic can pull off the upset, but I can’t bank on that happening until. It’s a good fight due to the “if” factor, but I have to pick JDS by TKO based on the style matchup. Having said that, I would not touch him at -400 and definitely recommend staying away from a bet here as this could be a letdown spot. It’s almost tempting to bet on Miocic at the big plus odds, but the best play here is likely a pass. If anything, Miocic by decision at +1000 is perhaps worth a bet.
