After the UFC’s newest champion is determined on Friday night in Las Vegas, the Octagon moves one state over for the organization’s latest offering on FOX the next evening. The main event of UFC on FOX 13 should have serious implications on the heavyweight title picture as former champion Junior dos Santos attempts to hold off surging contender Stipe Miocic. Odds have already been released for the main event, and they currently see dos Santos as a -325 favorite (bet $325 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers. Miocic is a +250 underdog (bet $100 to win $250). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has just released the odds for the remaining bouts on the card. Those bouts include a lightweight tilt between the surprising Rafael dos Anjos and the returning Nate Diaz, heavyweights Alistair Overeem and Stefan Struve, and the main card will kick off with a heavyweight bout between Matt Mitrione and Gabriel Gonzaga. Keep reading for the full event odds. ——————– MAIN CARD (FOX, 8pm ET) Junios dos Santos -270 Stipe Miocic +190 Rafael dos Anjos -190 Nate Diaz +150 Alistair Overeem -245 Stefan Struve +175 Matt Mitrione -150 Gabriel Gonzaga +110 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX, 5pm ET) John Moraga -400 Willie Gates +280 Claudia Gadelha -210 Joanna Jedrzejczyk +160 Ben Saunders -275 Joe Riggs +195 Jamie Varner -300 Drew Dober +220 Derek Brunson -230 Ed Herman +170 Joe Ellenberger -290 Bryan Barberena +210 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3:30pm ET) David Michaud -185 Garrett Whiteley +145 Henry Cejudo -215 Dustin Kimura +165 Anthony Birchak -315 Ian Entwistle +235 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: I really see dos Anjos’s style being difficult for Diaz to deal with. Unless Diaz is able to pile up strikes early to put dos Anjos on the back foot, the Brazilian should be able to work his way for takedowns and easily avoid any submission attempts from the former title challenger. Diaz is historically tough to finish, so I imagine it going the distance, but nobody expected dos Anjos to finish Benson Henderson either. It’s always difficult to get a read on Alistair Overeem fights, because from a technical standpoint, there are very few heavyweights he should lose to. However, factoring in his chin and cardio and things get dicey. The same, however, could be said of Stefan Struve in terms of chin. Coupled with Struve’s health issues and extended layoff, you have to side with Overeem here, but if you feel good about it, you’re a braver man than I. The opening bout on the main card is all about who gets there first, and I just see that being Matt Mitrione. Even if Gonzaga comes out with the smart gameplan of taking this to the ground, Mitrione could catch him on the way in and score a knockout. If Gonzaga stays on the outside, Mitrione’s chances are even better. Of course, if they somehow go to the ground, there’s a good chance Mitrione gets tapped, so be somewhat cautious, but I’m fairly confident. John Moraga doesn’t have much to gain in his bout with late replacement Willie Gates, but he should at least pick up a win over the Tachi Palace Fights champion. Gates is susceptible in the submission game, and we’ve seen that become one of Moraga’s best weapons in his UFC tenure. Aside from that, Moraga has an advantage wherever this fight goes. Gates is big for a flyweight and dangerous on the feet, but Moraga is more technical, has power of his own, and Gates is quite hittable. Given Moraga’s durability in the past, it’s hard to see Gates finishing him, and if that doesn’t happen I don’t see any path to victory for the newcomer. Even though the inaugural women’s strawweight champion will be determined the night before, I will have a hard time considering the TUF 20 winner the true 115lb champion until they defeat the winner of this bout. Gadelha and Jedrzejczyk were excluded from the show because they don’t speak English, but either could have made their way through the TUF house to the finale. As far as this matchup goes, the fact that it’s three rounds favors Gadelha, who has slowed in fights before. Across five rounds, she will struggle, but I think her cardio will hold up long enough for her wrestling to earn her two rounds here. Jedrzejczyk is one of the few women at 115lbs who has serious stopping power, so the third could be very troublesome for Gadelha, and if Jedrzejczyk can stop some takedowns early she could very easily take this fight. With the still developing 115lb division, I’m still not sure who the best in the world is, so while I lean very slightly to Gadelha, I’m guessing that the line will be way too far in her favor, so if there’s a bet to be had it’s almost certainly on the Polish fighter. Ben Saunders struggles against fighters who are very good at grinding, or guys who can knock him out. Perhaps 10 years ago, Riggs would have fallen into the latter category, but even at just 32 years of age he’s on a steep decline at this point. He’s still been getting finishes, but the level of competition has been pretty abysmal. Riggs also hasn’t fought since November 2013. Between those two factors, and Saunders just being overall more dynamic fighter, I have to side with him pretty heavily. Jamie Varner has advantages everywhere over Drew Dober in this fight. He’s the better striker, better wrestler, and even the better submission grappler. Even Varner’s questionable cardio shouldn’t come into play here, as Dober slows as well. I see this staying on the feet and Varner landing at will on the hittable Dober, and it likely making it to a decision. If Varner suffers an injury in the fight (a very real possibility), he can always switch to his wrestling. Ed Herman is once again faced with a faster opponent who is a significantly better athlete. Eventually that’s going to be his downfall in terms of hanging around in the UFC, and that could start with this bout. Brunson has improved his striking, and may be able to get the better of Herman on the feet, although his chin is a definite concern. Where Brunson should be able to shine is where he’s always strongest, getting takedowns and controlling his opponent. I think that will carry him to a decision here, since Herman is always durable. I don’t expect Joe Ellenberger to reach the heights that his brother has, but he’s a serviceable fighter, and he has Bryan Barberena outmatched in this one. Ellenberger proved his durability in his UFC debut, and if Barberena can’t get an early stoppage then he doesn’t have a way to win this fight. Ellenberger will probably get more takedowns as the fight goes on and may find a submission or just work his way to a decision. The Michaud/Whiteley bout does not interest me at all from a viewing or betting perspective. Michaud probably grinds him out, but Whiteley is overall the more dangerous fighter. I can’t reasonably bet on Michaud after his debut performance in the UFC, but at the same time Whiteley doesn’t inspire confidence at all. Speaking of not inspiring confidence, Henry Cejudo just doesn’t seem focused on his MMA career. It’s a shame because he is one of the most naturally gifted fighters to come into the sport, but he just doesn’t care. His wrestling on its own is good enough to beat most fighters, but he’s got an underrated boxing game, and has shown the toughness to absorb some big shots on the regional scene. I think he wins this fight everywhere unless Dustin Kimura can catch him in a scramble, and with Cejudo’s wrestling chops, that seems hard to envision. Ian Entwistle is dangerous with his submission game in the opening minutes of any bout, but beyond that he simply doesn’t have anything. I suspect that Birchak is a good enough wrestler to keep this on the feet in that danger zone and then work his way towards a finish late in the first round or sometime in the second. The line is steep, but I’m confident in Birchak because of how one-dimensional Entwistle is.
