There are two titles at stake this weekend at UFC 181 on a card that is refreshingly loaded with talent and fun fighters. But if you needed one more reason to tune in this weekend, consider the number of sluggers that will be entering the cage on Saturday. Although the UFC isn’t using real punching power sensors just yet, we have a statistical proxy to measure striking power. And of fighters with enough sample size, all but two are above average when it comes to their distance Knockdown Rate.
The overall UFC average for this metric is 2.7%. For more on the nuances and benchmarks for MMA statistics get the book “Fightnomics” at Amazon.
Winners: It’s not surprising to see a heavyweight at the top of the list, as they have the highest average knockdown rate of any weight class. However, you may be surprised that the leader in this category isn’t #3 ranked Heavyweight Travis Browne. Rather, it’s his opponent, and the nearly 3-to-1 underdog Brendan Schaub. Schaub was a live by the KO or go out on his shield type of fighter before revamping himself through a rapidly improving ground game. He’ll remain the underdog against the highly ranked Browne, but don’t blink as both men pack a big punch. The wildcard in this matchup with be if Schaub chooses to turn this into a grappling contest, which wouldn’t be surprising given his new jits skills and Browne’s sturdy chin. The third name among the heavy hitters is Anthony Pettis. The man famous for his showtime/wall-walk kick doesn’t just land flashy strikes, he lands strong and effective ones. With five knockdowns to date, that’s more than either of the two heavyweights, and on a pound for pound basis, you could argue he is the most dangerous striker on the card. (Upper) Middle of the Pack: The next group of names on the list includes both fighters in the main event. In the Welterweight title fight Lawler gets a slight edge over Hendricks with his punch-for-punch (or kick-for-kick) Knockdown Rate, and in their first fight it appeared that Lawler was the closest to scoring a knockdown after rocking Hendricks in the fourth round. Both men have logged more knockdowns than any others on the entire card, but Lawler with 10 combined knockdowns in Strikeforce/UFC action is the clear leader. Expect another predominantly standup war between these two, but also expect that their very durable chins will keep the fight going a while. Also noteworthy is Francisco Rivera, who will be facing the oldest fighter on the card, Urijah Faber. The combination of age versus power is always dangerous, but watch out for Faber’s crafty and veteran grappling game to nullify that threat. And then there’s Tony Ferguson, who has a passion for finishing fights. Although he had trouble with the relentless wrestling attack of Danny Castillo in his last fight, Ferguson remains an exciting future challenger in the Lightweight division thanks to his very long reach and above average power. Room for Improvement: You may be surprised to see the last two names on the list, as one man has rattled off two consecutive TKOs, while the other is challenging for a title. But at least as historical performance goes, both Abel Trujillo and Gilbert Melendez just haven’t been knocking people down at the same rate as their peers. That’s not to say they aren’t dangerous, but for these guys it takes a few more landed strikes to put someone away. Melendez at least may have a deflated Knockdown Rate after landing barrages on the inhumanly durable Diego Sanchez. Both these men are also facing more powerful strikers, and that is one contributing factor to Trujillo and Melendez being underdogs this weekend. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis, or on Facebook if you prefer.